Modern Warfare 4 vs. GTA 5: Rockstar Expected To Outperform Activision, Says Analyst

The "Call of Duty" series is usually guaranteed to lock up the top spot as the highest selling title of the year. In 2012, "Call of Duty: Black Ops 2" was the best selling game, while "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3" was the highest selling title of 2011.

A number of rumors have circulated about "Modern Warfare" being released in 2013 and prognosticators indicated that the title would be the highest selling game of 2013. However, a recent report from Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia indicates that Grand Theft Auto 5 should take the crown in 2013.

According to Bhatia, Rockstar's game is expected to sell about 18 million copies and should make around $1 billion dollars in profit. "[GTA V] is a long-awaited title that consumers are unlikely to pass up and we remain bullish on our outlook for this title and for the company," said Bhatia.

Bhatia also notes that even if the title underperforms and sells only 15 million copies, Rockstar parent company Take Two will still win back a $193.6 million profit. If the title somehow manages to sell 25 million copies, Take Two will get an operating profit of $390.8 million. Gaming Blend does note that the "projection of 18 million copies in six months is very optimistic. Grand Theft Auto IV took about two years to sell 15 million copies." The publication does note that the player base for the Xbox 360 and PS3 have grown since GTA IV's launch in 2008.

The claim that GTA 5 could win the crown is further substantiated by the sales drop in the last two Call of Duty titles. According to Gaming Bolt, "Black Ops 2" sold fewer copies than "Modern Warfare 3." This claim is refuted by the fact that "Black Ops surpassed the $1 billion mark in 15 days, beating out the record of 16 days set by "Modern Warfare 3." However, analysts had previously indicated that the franchise would be on a decline.  If this trend continues, then GTA 5 should have little difficulty taking the crown this year.