2013 NBA Finals: Why San Antonio Spurs Will Win Fifth Title Against The Miami Heat

Six years ago, at almost exactly the same time of the season, the San Antonio Spurs entered the championship series against the Cleveland Cavaliers as a favorite to win their fourth NBA title in franchise history.

With the big 3 playing at the peak of their careers, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker easily dispatched the kings of the Eastern Conference, who unexpectedly punched their way to their first ever NBA finals by leaning 'heavily' on the broad shoulders of LeBron James.

A half decade passed by, the Spurs and James cross paths again for one purpose - to win another NBA crown.

However, the NBA landscape has changed dramatically since their first finals encounter in 2007.

After winning their fourth title, the Spurs were reduced to a mere playoff team in the succeeding seasons and even bounced out of the first round for a couple of times during that forgetful span. Father time appeared fast approaching for Duncan and Ginobili while Parker was on a brink of changing jersey. It was indeed a frustrating period for the Spurs until they found their luck in the 2011 NBA Draft.    

Looking for an athletic stopper in the wing, the Spurs traded budding star George Hill to the Indiana Pacers in exchange for their 11^th overall pick: Kawhi Leonard.

Within two years, Leonard has become the premier wing defender for the Spurs and a reliable contributor offensively as he assumed the role - and the dirty works - abandoned by retired Spur, Bruce Bowen.

Leonard was indeed the missing piece in the Spurs resurgence. San Antonio took off from there and steadily climbed their way back to their elite status.

It was a different story for James, who absorbed a fair share of playoff heartbreaks following his first stint in the final.

James emerged as perennial MVP contender in the succeeding seasons and powered the Cavs to regular-season titles for two consecutive years. However, the Cavs superstar didn't get enough help from his teammates as they choked hard in the postseason on two separate occasions.

The playoff frustrations and the lack of urgency from the management to surround him with talents prompted James to bolt out of Cleveland and join Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh in 2010. Together, the South Beach triumvirate became a dominant figure not only in the NBA but in the entire sporting world as they toppled almost every team with sheer basketball skills.

At first, the Miami experiment didn't end up as planned with the Heat losing to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Finals. But the trio finally realized their potential as a team in the second season. With better set of bench players, the Heat dominated their way to an NBA championship, putting an end on James' quest for his first ring.

Now, the stage is set for a real grudge battle. It's time to crunch the numbers.

It's going to be really hard to consider their match-up in the regular season relevant enough because both teams decided to sit their key players in the two games they played. However, analyzing the statistical numbers they amassed throughout the postseason, we will be able to determine which team has an edge over the other.

Big 3 vs. Big 3

San Antonio: Tony Parker (23.0 points and 7.2 assists), Tim Duncan (17.8 points and 9.2 rebounds), Manu Ginobili (11.5 points and 5.4 assists).

Miami: LeBron James (26.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.4 assists), Dwyane Wade (14.1 points, 4.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds), and Chris Bosh (12.3 points and 6.6 rebounds)

As clearly as it gets, the Spurs triumvirate has been performing better than the Heat's superstar trio. Timmy is still yanking big numbers night in and night out and Ginobili remains the same energy player who can knock down big shots late in the game. While LeBron has been putting up historical numbers, Wade and Bosh has been subpar, if not miserable, throughout the postseason.

Bench Play

San Antonio: 37.9 points per game - Manu Ginobili (11.5 ppg, 5.4 apg, 4.4 rpg), Gary Neal (5.5 ppg) and Matt Bonner (5.0 ppg and 2.3 rpg).

Miami: 32.2 points per game - Ray Allen (10 ppg), Chris Anderson (7.1 ppg and 4.1 rpg), and Norris Cole (7.1 ppg and 2.1 rpg)    

Bench production is another department the Spurs has a great advantage they can capitalize on. Ginobili is a multi-dimension player that can make an impact in other aspects of the game, while Allen settles to live and die with his trey. Moreover, Matt Boner and Boris Diaw will play a crucial role in giving valuable rest time for Duncan.

X-Factor

San Antonio: Kawhi Leonard (13.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.36 spg)

Miami: Shane Battier (4.3 ppg, 1.4 rpg)

In last season's finals, Battier played a critical part in helping the Heat win their second NBA title. The rough NBA veteran made things tough for Kevin Durant to the point of exhaustion. This year, he will likely be tasked to guard Leonard. However, Leonard isn't too concerned in scoring the ball, he has a tougher mission - stop LBJ. 

Leonard, with his seven-foot wingspan and incredible athleticism, has the tools to stop James even at his prime. Six years ago, Bowen smothered James all over the floor and forced the former Cavs to be a jump shooter. Leonard is very much capable of doing that against James.

If there's one player that will change the course of the series, that would be Leonard. In only his second year in the league, the San Diego State-product is set to face perhaps the best basketball player on the planet. While most players get intimated by James brute strength and godly basketball talent, Leonard is unfazed and even more accepts that as a challenge.

In 2007, the Spurs pummeled James and the Cavs in four games. There won't be a difference six years later as the Spurs look to take the Heat to school of fundamental basketball. Spurs will be winning their fifth title in six games.