New Jersey Governor Christie See Lead in Polls Shrink; Still Leads Big, Holding Sway with Latinos

In New Jersey, the re-election battle between incumbent Governor Chris Christie (R) and state Senator Barbara Buono (D) is tightening, albeit not by much.

According to a Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll, Christie's lead is down the 56 percent to 36 percent over Bruno, a twenty-point margin that, should it hold, would represent a landslide victory. However, according to the same polling group, Christie had a 30 point advantage a month ago (61 percent to 31 percent) as of one month ago. So in a month, his lead has been cut by a third.

Still, he remains largely in control of the race - and an early front-runner for the GOP's Presidential nomination in 2016 - because of his ability to shore up the traditional Republican base (white men) while also leaning into the much-coveted Latino demographic.

According to an August 8^th poll by Quinnipiac University, it's in large part the Hispanics that are helping turn what might be a close race into a blowout. In that poll (which showed Christie up by 28 points) the Governor rolls over Buono amongst white voters (66 percent to 25 percent) but loses amongst African Americans/black voters (54 percent to 30 percent). Amongst Latinos, Buono's slim lead (43 percent to 41 percent) lies within the poll's the margin of error.

For the GOP, that neutralization of the Hispanic vote is something they'll keep a close eye on heading into 2016. The Republican party is still reeling from losses in 2008 and 2012 in the historically red states of the rocky mountain west, where the growth of Latino populations has undeniably shifted momentum for the Democrats. In 2012, Barack Obama won the Latino vote by 44 points, 71% to 27%.

Republican President George W. Bush lost the Latino vote, as have all Republicans in the last nine elections; however his slimmer 18% loss in 2004 represented a Republican showing amongst Hispanics that had not been matched before and hasn't been matched since.

So for Christie, a statistical tie with Latinos suggests a big win in his bid for New Jersey reelection; if he can hold those numbers nationwide in 2016, it could propel him all the way to the White House.