The screenplay category is one of the more contentious categories at the Globes. Three of the scripts are adapted screenplays that have won numerous precursors while two scripts are original creations.
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Chris Terrio's script has won eight precursor awards including one with the Los Angeles and San Diego Film Critics. The film is based on true events that showcase on CIA Agent that goes into Iran to save a group of fugitive Americans. Argo is Terrio's first full length script and his nomination for the Golden Globes is his first. "Argo" is a top contender to win the top prize and Terrio has a legitimate chance to win the award.
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Tarantino's original script for "Django Unchained" has won just one precursor, but Tarantino has been lauded for his unique vision. The film is set in the antebellum south and portrays revisionist history of slavery in which a freed slave and a German doctor head into a slave plantation to rescue the slave's wife. The film won best screenplay at the Hollywood Film Awards. Tarantino has been nominated for six Golden Globes, three for Director and three for screenplay. He won for his direction in "Pulp Fiction" back in 1995. His script for "Pulp Fiction" was also nominated. In 2010 Tarantino's "Inglorious Basterds" garnered nominations but no wins. In addition to his script for "Django," Tarantino is also nominated for Best Director. Tarantino may be the long shot in this group as his film is unlikely to be a major contender in any major awards.
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Kushner's script for "Lincoln" is based of Doris Kearns Goodwin's book "Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln." It has won six precursor awards for Best Adapted Screenplay from such critics circles as the New York Film Critics, the Boston Film Critics, and the San Francisco Film Critics. Kushner was nominated back in 2005 for his Screenplay for Steven Spielberg's film "Munich." "Lincoln" might be the Globes' front-runner for Best Drama and that alone makes Kushner at top contender.
Silver Linings Playbook (David O.Russel)
David O. Russel's script for "Silver Linings Playbook" is another adaptation and has had a solid precursor awards season. The film tells the tale of two former mental patients who fall in love. It has won four best adapted screenplay awards from the National Board of Review, Washington DC Film Critics, Detroit Film Critics, and the St. Louis Film Critics. Russel has been nominated for his direction in the 2010 film "The Fighter" but this is his first screenplay nomination. Like Tarantino, he is the big long shot in the category as his lack of a directing nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press shows the lack of interest in the film from the HFA.
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
Mark Boal's script for "Zero Dark Thirty" is based on first-hand accounts of the manhunt for Osama Bin Laden, but the film has been in contention for the original screenplay category. It has won six precursor awards including the New York Film Critics Online, St. Louis Film critics, and San Francisco Film Critics. Boal was nominated for Best Screenplay back in 2010 for Kathryn Bigelow's "The Hurt Locker" but he lost that year and the film, which eventually won the Best Picture Oscar, lost the top prize at the Globes. The film might be too gritty for the Hollywood foreign press and its controversial nature could ultimately stop them from awarding the film.
Prediction: The controversial nature of "Zero Dark Thirty" likely puts off the Hollywood Foreign Press, making this category between "Argo" and "Lincoln." "Argo" has been more heavily favored by critics awards, but "Lincoln" gives the HFP a chance to celebrate a film by Hollywood's most powerful man. Look for "Lincoln" to win this category and a host of other awards.
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