On Monday, the Oscar nomination votes will be due. With no major award associations announcing nominations or awards it is safe to say a major component of the race has already been finalized leading up to Monday's vote. After numerous precursors, the Golden Globe and SAG nominations, a few things have become increasingly clear.
Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty Are Perennial Favorites for Major Nominations
The critics have almost unanimously announced their backing of Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty while the SAG and Golden Globes showed overwhelming support for Lincoln. Expect both of these films to see a plethora of nominations come their way. Both are complete locks for Best Picture, Best Director, Screenwriting and Acting Awards. Both will get a plethora of technical awards.
Silver Linings, Playbook, Life of PI and Argo should also be included in the Best Picture category. If the Academy chooses to only go with five films, those should be the five. Les Miserables could knock off one of the other films off the list, but the initial critical reception and the lack of popularity for musicals among the Academy does not bode well for its chances. The remaining films in contention include Django Unchained, Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and The Master. If there are 10 films, these are the films.
Predictions for Best Picture: Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Les Miserables
Actors Locked for Nominations
In the Best Actor Category, Daniel Day-Lewis and John Hawkes are locks. Day-Lewis has won practically every Best Actor award to date and Hawkes has been nominated by every single critics circle and the SAGS and Globes. The remaining three spots will be contested by Denzel Washington, Bradley Cooper, Joaquin Phoenix, and Hugh Jackman. Phoenix's exclusion from SAG could hurt his chances since the SAG voters are also Academy voters.
Predictions: Daniel Day-Lewis, John Hawkes, Bradley Cooper, Joaquin Phoenix, Hugh Jackman
In the Best Actress race, Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, and Marion Cotillard are sure nominations. Naomi Watts, Helen Mirren, Emmanuelle Riva, Quenzhane Wallis, and Rachel Weisz are the battling for the final two slots. Since Riva and Cotillard are both films in French, it is doubtful that the Academy nominates two Actresses from foreign language films in such a major category. Riva's exclusion from the SAG and Cotillard's recognition from SAG would indicate her status as the lock in this category. Weisz was not nominated for the SAG, but she won the NY Critics circle and was nominated for Globe. Wallis is the wildcard as the Academy may not be as inclined to nominate and eight-year old for their big award. The last time a child got nominated was in 2008 when Saoirse Ronan got a nod for Best Supporting Actress in Atonement.
Predictions: Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, Marion Cotillard, Naomi Watts, Quenzhane Wallis,
Locks for the Best Supporting Actor race include Tommy Lee-Jones, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, and Alan Arkin with Robert DeNiro, Matthew McConaughey, Javier Bardem, Christoph Waltz, and Leonardo DiCaprio contesting the final nominations. Bardem shocked the world with his SAG nomination which essentially eliminated the Django Unchained duo for Waltz and DiCaprio. However, he was ignored at the Globes while the duo were both nominated. The interesting situation with Waltz and DiCaprio is that both represent the same film, which may split voters who will look to nominate actors from different films. It is not an uncommon occurrence as two actors from the same film competing in the same category has happened for a few years in a row. Last year Jessica Chastain and Octavia Spencer both obtained nods in the Supporting Actress category for their respective roles in The Help.
Predictions: Tommy Lee-Jones, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Alan Arkin, Robert DeNiro, Leonardo DiCaprio
As for the Supporting Actress Race, Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, and Helen Hunt will definitely be amongst the top five picks. Vying for the remaining slots are Nicole Kidman, Amy Adams, Maggie Smith, and Ann Dowd. Nicole Kidman shocked the world when the SAG nominated her for the Best Supporting Actress. It was the first time she entered the race as a legitimate contender. Maggie also saw a surprising nomination from SAG. Ann Dowd and Adams were both ignored by SAG but Adams procured a Globe nomination. Dowd received neither and her contention could be over.
Predictions: Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Helen Hunt, Nicole Kidman, Amy Adams
Best Director Category Has One Slot Open
Kathryn Bigelow, Steven Spielberg, Ben Affleck, and Ang Lee are essentially locks for the top five directors of the year. The single spot is being contended by David O. Russel, Tom Hooper, Quentin Tarantino, and Paul Thomas Anderson. Because the Directors Guild has yet to announce their nominations, it is difficult to call the final spot. Since Silver Linings Playbook is one of the top contenders, O. Russel likely has the advantage over the others.
Predictions: Kathryn Bigelow, Steven Spielberg, Ben Affleck, Ang Lee, David O.Russel
The nominations will be announced on January 10th.
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