Oscar 2013 Best Picture Analysis: Can 'Beasts of the Southern Wild' Break Oscar Rules and Win?

"Beasts of the Southern Wild" was the biggest surprise on Jan.10 when the Academy Awards announced their nominations. The film was expected to land Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay nominations. There was also some consensus that Quvenzhane Wallis would get nominated but no one ever expected newcomer Benh Zeitlin to land a Best Director nod.

The film came out the Sundance Institute and won the Sundance Grand Jury Award as well as numerous prizes at the Deauville and Cannes Film festivals. The $1.8 million film then garnered box office success by grossing $12 million. "Beasts" scored numerous breakout awards during precursor season but never won a single Best Picture, Director or Actress award. The film instead won Best Original Score with numerous organizations but failed to receive recognition at the Academy.

Wallis has an uphill battle to win the Best Actress award. She must compete against front-runners Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook). With no precursors and no buzz surrounding the performance it is difficult to see her having a good chance.

The Best Adapted Screenplay Award faces the same type of competition having lost every major award and obtaining no nomination from the Writers Guild of America. With "Argo" in the lead and "Silver Linings Playbook" right behind it, Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar will have to be content with the nomination.

However the Director award is up for grabs. Zeitlin surprised by taking Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow's spot. He also made history as one of the youngest nominees in the category and by being nominated for his first film. The director award was dominated throughout the season by Bigelow and Affleck and with the two shunned from the race pundits have no idea who will win. Therefore, Zeitlin can still surprise.

If Zeitlin wins, then he can also take home the Best Picture Award and continue to make history. However "Beasts" has a weak chance after losing out on the Editing nomination and obtaining no Scren Actors Guild Mention. No film has ever won Best Picture without an editing recognition or a SAG nomination for Best Ensemble. While the film surprised, it looks to go home empty handed.