Oscar 2013 Best Picture Analysis: Why 'Zero Dark Thirty' Will Not Win the Oscar

"Zero Dark Thirty" has been under a lot of scrutiny as of late thanks to political controversy, boycotts, and even snubs at the Oscars. The film won the box office this past weekend and looks to continue strong. However its chances of winning the Academy Award for Best Picture have faded.

After winning 13 precursor awards including the National Board of Review and the New York Film critics, "Zero Dark Thirty" had all the momentum going for it. However, controversy hit when politicians Diane Feinstein and John McCain condemned the film for its torture scenes. The two then called for an investigation.

The Kathryn Bigelow-directed film is based on the decade hunt for Osama Bin Laden. After the initial political controversy, the film failed to garner a nomination in the SAG ensemble category proving that film had weaknesses and would most likely not win Best Film at the Academy Awards. On Jan. 10 the film hit headlines when it failed to obtain a directing nomination with the Academy. It became the biggest Oscar snub of the season after Kathryn Bigelow had won many accolades for Best Director from various critics' circles. However, it was later revealed that the snub may have occurred after various Academy members, including David Clennon, Ed Asner and Martin Sheen, spoke out against the film and called for a boycott. They stated their discontent for the torture scenes and stated that film was anti-American.

As a result "Zero Dark Thirty" has an uphill battle in order to win the Oscar. "Zero Dark Thirty" may have obtained the best reviews of the year from the critics and won multiple critics awards but it is ultimately the Academy members that count. While the film has five nominations including Best Picture, Best Editing, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay, it does not have the requisite Best Directing nod. The last film to win the Oscar without a directing nod was "Driving Miss Daisy" in 1989. However, that occasion rarely happens anymore and while the Best Picture does not necessarily have to win Best Director, it is key to winning. The last time that scenario took place was in 2006 when "Crash" won Picture but lost the director category. 

"Zero Dark Thirty" also missed the SAG ensemble nomination, an award that is required for a Best Picture win. Since the award's inception in 1993, no film has ever won the Best Picture without getting nominated for Best Ensemble at the SAG. 

Another obstacle for this film is that director Kathryn Bigelow won the Best Director/Picture Oscars in 2009 for her work on "The Hurt Locker." The Oscars may be hesitant to give a Bigelow film another Best Picture award because it is too recent and perhaps they want to award another director and film who have never won or have not won in years. The most recent occurence of a director winning two Best Pictures in his career was Clint Eastwood whose 1992 film "Unforgiven" and 2004 movie "Million Dollar Baby," both took home the top prize. 

The film also failed to win the Critics' Choice award and Golden Globe awards, two precursor awards that are well known for predicting the Oscar incumbent.

The only thing going for the film at this point is if it wins the BAFTA or PGA awards because those organizations are also made up of Academy members. If it fails, "Thirty" may go home empty handed.