The two actor races at the Golden Globes are completely different in scope. One race is essentially a no-contest while the other is completely wide open. Here are the nominees for Best Actor.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture- Drama
Daniel Day Lewis- Lincoln
This is the race that is essentially predictable and Day-Lewis is the front-runner to win it for his role as President Abraham Lincoln. He has won 24 Best Actor accolades, far more than any other contestant in this race. Day-Lewis has been nominated for eight Globes and won back in 2008 for his role in "There Will Be Blood."
Richard Gere- Arbitrage
Gere earned early buzz for his performance as a corrupt business executive, but he failed to pick up any traction in awards season. He has won zero accolades and this is his only major nomination for an award. Gere has obtained four Golden Globe nominations in his career and won back in 2003 for his performance in "Chicago."
John Hawkes- The Sessions
Hawkes' turn as a man attached to an iron lung was another performance that had tremendous buzz early on, but was unable to pick up momentum. The Nevada Film Critics picked Hawkes as their top actor, but no other organization has done the same. This is Hawkes' first Golden Globe nomination.
Joaquin Phoenix- The Master
If anyone is going to win this award aside from Day-Lewis, it will be Phoenix who was the early front-runner before Day-Lewis' 24 wins. Six organizations have jumped on the Phoenix bandwagon and he is the second most awarded actor in the race. However, his comments on hating awards last fall could cripple his chances of stealing the win in this category.
Denzel Washington- Flight
Washington has been nominated for his performance as the pilot who shockingly lands a falling plane but he has only won one accolade throughout the entire race. The African American Film Critics loved Washington's performance but no one else has found it to be the top one of the year. The Hollywood Foreign Press will likely not go for this one either.
Predictions: This is a foregone conclusion: Daniel Day-Lewis will win this award easily. If he is to lose, Joaquin Phoenix would be the winner.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture- Comedy/Musical
This category is completely wide open and any actor could potentially steal the spotlight.
Jack Black- Bernie
Jack Black makes a career-defining turn in "Bernie" as a beloved Texas community member who kills an elderly widow that he had developed a relationship with. Black has not really picked up much steam in this race, but his versatile performance (which features singing) seemed too good for the HFP to overlook. This is Black's second Globe nomination; he was recognized back in 2004 for his performance in "School of Rock." He is not the front-runner in this race, but could potentially pick up a surprise win.
Bradley Cooper- Silver Linings Playbook
Cooper had never been nominated for a Golden Globe and is the front-runner to win the award on his first try. He plays a man recently released from a mental institution and is intent on getting his old life back. Cooper has won four Best Actor accolades from such major organizations as the National Board of Review and Satellite Awards. No other actor in this category has picked up the buzz and awards that Cooper has and for that reason he is the front-runner.
Hugh Jackman- Les Misérables
The reason this contest is wide open is because Jackman can steal the win form Cooper with his performance as Jean Valjean in Les Misérables. Jackman has not won a single award, but he has been nominated everywhere and has been touted as a major contender for the Oscar. Jackman was nominated for the Globes back in 2002 for his performance in "Kate & Leopold." Look for him to potentially win this race.
Ewan McGregor- Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
As stated in the Best Actress article, this film was the biggest surprise of all when the Golden Globes were announced. "Yemen" did not have any awards buzz before the nomination and has not picked up any momentum since. The critics scorned it and have not rewarded it with anything. For that reason, McGregor's nomination seems more like a placeholder and his shots at winning this award are the fewest out of anyone in this group.
Bill Murray- Hyde Park on Hudson
Once upon a time, Bill Murray was vetted as the Oscar front-runner for playing Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Early campaigns dreamed of pitting the two most prominent presidents (Lincoln and FDR) in United States history against each other in a major battle for the Best Actor Oscar. Several months and multitudes of negative reviews later, Bill Murray has no shot at a nomination and much less an award at the Oscars. He should be happy to settle in for the Golden Globe nomination which he likely does not win either.
Prediction: Bradley Cooper wins this due to his increasing popularity and his edge in the current Oscar race.
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