Obama Leads in Ohio and Rust Belt, Romney Up in Florida, But Ohio is the Prize

In what is likely the last day of heavy swing state polling, we have a huge batch of data to look at.

In the notorious swing state of Florida, a Florida Times-Union poll shows Republican challenger Mitt Romney with a huge 5-point lead over President Obama, 52 percent to 47 percent.

However, a Public Policy Polling survey in the same state gives Obama a 1-point advantage, 50 percent to 49 percent.

In Virginia, another Public Policy Polling survey has Obama up by 4 points, 51 percent to 47 percent.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll there shows Obama up by a single point, but a Rasmussen poll give Romney the lead by 2 points.

Good news for Obama in New Hampshire as a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll gives him a 3-point lead, 51 percent to 48 percent, and a PPP survey shows him leading in the state by 2 points.

Romney continues to hold North Carolina, with a Gravis poll showing him ahead by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent, while a PPP survey shows the two candidates tied at 49 percent even.

A single poll by PPP out of Iowa has Obama up by 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent.

And in the grand prize of Ohio, three polls from the Columbus Dispatch, Ohio Poll, and PPP show Obama leading Romney by 2, 5 and 1 point(s), respectively.

A Rasmussen poll in Ohio has the candidates tied at 49 percent, but Rasmussen is the only polling firm to show anything but an Obama lead in Ohio in the last two weeks.

On balance, Obama has leads in New Hampshire, Virginia, Iowa and Ohio, while Romney leads in Florida and North Carolina.

As I've said before, Romney can't afford to lose Florida or North Carolina, but Obama can lose New Hampshire, Virginia and Iowa as long as he holds onto Ohio.

And his grip looks firm.

Preliminary results from early voting give Democrats a substantial lead over Republicans in swing states.

Over 30 million Americans have already voted, 11 million of them in the most crucial swing states, and Democrats lead in ballots cast in every one of those states except Colorado.

Some Republicans insist states like Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin are still in play, but Romney is wasting his time stumping in those places.

He should be setting up camp in Ohio, with occasional forays to Florida, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire.

Instead, he's trying to shore up support in the Rust Belt in what will ultimately be a losing battle. The auto-industry bailout is too popular and the Midwest has lower unemployment than the national average.

I'm not sure what Romney's advisors are thinking. The math isn't on their side and they need to focus fire on Ohio if they hope to win tomorrow.