Three days before the national election, the Electoral College outlook for Republican challenger Mitt Romney looks bleak.
Romney has trailed President Obama in most electoral vote estimates for the majority of the campaign, but his lead in the popular vote for much of October left Republicans hoping that he could sway enough voters in critical swing states to turn the tide.
It does not look like that is happening.
In the majority of the slew of polls coming out of swing states the week before the election, Obama leads.
While Romney has firm support in North Carolina, and a slight edge in Florida, he is behind in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio.
Romney's support might rally in some of these states in the next few days. But it seems unlikely in most of them, given that Obama has led in polls in Nevada, Iowa and Ohio for almost the entire campaign
And without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, it seems all but impossible for Romney to reach the 270 votes required to win the presidency.
As predictions currently stand, Obama has 201 electoral votes, and Romney has 191.
For a brief period several weeks ago, Romney took the lead when some outlets called North Carolina for him, increasing his total to 206 votes.
Since then, North Carolina has drifted back into tossup territory, but the results there matter less than they did, as the rest of the map has settled down.
Obama is poised to take Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, even as Romney will take North Carolina. That puts Obama at 247 electoral votes to Romney's 206.
If Romney takes Florida, which seems likely, he jumps to 235.
If Romney can take Ohio, he leaps to 253, just 17 votes shy of winning. Virginia and New Hampshire would get him there, and those states are his best bets of the remaining unclaimed votes.
But Romney's chances in Ohio are no better than 1 in 5, according to FiveThirtyEight.
In the last three weeks, of the 26 polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics, Romney had led in only one of them. He tied Obama in five, but Obama led in 20 of them.
While it's possible that the single Rasmussen poll showing Romney leading by 2 points is correct and all the other polls are wrong, it's extremely unlikely.
And without Ohio, Romney will need to take every other state in play, including Nevada and Iowa, where Obama is also leading.
Barring some unforeseen scandal or natural disaster, I predict an Obama win on Tuesday, though it will be a narrow victory.
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