The weekend begins with a string of polls in the fiercely contested battleground states of Ohio and Florida.
A Rasmussen poll released late Friday gives Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 5-point lead in Florida, 51 percent to President Obama's 46 percent. A CNN/ORC poll gives him a slight edge of 1 point in the state.
A Fox News poll puts Romney ahead by 3 points in Florida, 48 percent to 45 percent.
However, a SurveyUSA poll released Saturday morning put Obama up 1 point in Florida.
Florida had seemed like a possible--even likely--pickup for Obama until just a few weeks ago, when Romney handily won the first presidential debate.
While Obama has strong Latino support in Florida, popular Republican Senator Marco Rubio stumps for Romney there, and the influential Cuban-American vote has always leaned conservative.
But in the critical swing state of Ohio, a Fox News poll on Friday showed Obama with a 3-point advantage, with 46 percent of respondents supporting Obama, compared to 43 percent supporting Romney.
A Gravis poll in Ohio Saturday morning called the race a tie, at 47 percent even.
Fox News is certainly no Democratic shill, and the methodology of the Gravis poll tends to skew slightly conservative, so it looks like Obama has a slight advantage in Ohio.
This is bad news for Romney.
While Obama can afford to lose Florida (and the entire South), Romney needs Ohio.
No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio, and while Romney can technically do it, he has few paths available, and they are all difficult and unlikely.
Now that North Carolina looks to be firmly in Romney's column, he has the advantage in the Electoral College count. But after Florida and Virginia, two likely--though not assured--Romney wins, he has exhausted the low-hanging fruit.
Without Ohio, Romney must take several Midwestern swing states that, as of late, have tipped further toward Obama.
Pennsylvania, aside from one outlier poll, looks like it will be called for Obama in the next week.
Nevada looks the same way. Romney has a chance in Colorado and Iowa, but even if he takes both states, he would need either Michigan or Wisconsin.
Republicans are less popular in Wisconsin after the union battles earlier year. While Romney's father was governor of Michigan, Obama's auto industry bailout saved many jobs in Detroit and the rest of the state.
For his part, Obama has several paths to the 270 electoral votes needed to win, with or without Ohio, but taking the state will give him much more breathing room in the event of a Romney rally, especially with one more presidential debate coming next week.
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