We now have another day of post-debate data to sift through, and the bounce we expected for Obama after his improvement during the second presidential debate is beginning to show.
The daily Gallup tracking poll still has Romney up substantially, but that's down from yesterday, with support for Romney dropping by a point.
As I've mentioned before, the Gallup daily poll is a rolling average of the past week, so it takes a while to really move; Obama's numbers are likely much better right now than this poll shows.
Also, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight takes issue with the Gallup poll's accuracy. He says historically the poll has been off, especially when it doesn't agree with most other national polls, like now.
As for those other national polls, both Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP show improvements for Obama. While those are also both rolling averages, the Rasmussen poll aggregates three days of data instead of seven, and both polls have been more consistent in showing a tight race.
At this point, the Rasmussen poll is comprised of two-thirds post-debate data. Tomorrow, all of the responses it averages will have been taken after the second presidential debate.
But polls in Virginia and North Carolina, swing states now leaning Romney, seem to be solidifying. In fact, RealClearPolitics calls North Carolina for Romney, moving it out of the "toss-up" column and putting Romney ahead on the electoral vote estimates.
This trend in the South (Florida, too) to move toward Romney doesn't seem to be reflected in the rest of the country. Actually, it looks like red-leaning states are becoming more red and blue-leaning states are becoming more blue.
A slew of swing state polls show the Midwest and Rust Belt tipping in Obama's direction, enough for FiveThirtyEight to peg Obama's chances of taking the White House at higher than 70 percent for the first time in 10 days.
As the campaign comes to a climax, perhaps voters are digging in their heels and finally making up their minds.
If things stay as they are right now, Obama wins. And if they keep moving in the same direction, Obama wins. Romney needs to do something to shake up the election again, and he needs to do it soon.
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