While the national polls by Gallup, Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP show Republican challenger Mitt Romney holding on to his lead over President Obama, our very own polls of our readers show a slightly different story.
Most national polls are what are called "rolling averages." The polling firms take surveys every day, and then average the previous three or seven days worth of responses into a single report which they release each day.
So while the information itself is accurate, it tends to smooth out spikes in public sentiment, and it takes a few days for the latest news to be reflected in the polls.
For example, when Romney handily won the first presidential debate, the rolling averages for the next few days only showed a small bump in his support, because his low numbers prior to the debate still counted.
In the same way, any impact from Obama's comeback in the second presidential debate on Tuesday won't be fully seen until Saturday in some polls, and perhaps next week in others.
Which is why it is useful to look at instant polls, too. These polls are taken over a short period of time, and give a quick snapshot of voter sentiment at one moment in time.
Looking at several instant polls inn succession gives a nice view of the polling trends.
Over the last week, we have conducted five polls of our readers regarding the candidate they intend to vote for in November. First, the data, displayed by percent support of respondents:
Oct. 10: Obama 54, Romney 43
Oct. 12: Romney 54, Obama 43
Oct. 13: Romney 50, Obama 47
Oct. 17: Obama 49, Romney 48
Oct. 18: Obama 56, Romney 42
Arranged by candidate, over time:
Obama: 54, 43, 47, 49, 56
Romney: 43, 54, 50, 48, 42
A week ago, Obama starts off with plenty of support, with well over half of all respondents voting for him. The vice-presidential debate happens the next day, and then the results flip-Romney is far ahead in our next poll.
This is around the time that Romney was doing best in the national polls, as well. The next day, Romney still leads in our polls, but his margin has shrunk to 3 points.
Three days later, the candidates meet for their second debate, and the next day, Obama makes a comeback in our poll, edging out Romney by a point.
Finally, Obama is back on top today, better off than he started.
It's important to remember that these aren't scientific results, but they do offer a glimpse into the views of our readership.
We'll continue to update with new daily polls, so keep checking back to vote.
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