Bad news for President Obama in national polls on Wednesday.
While Obama is generally viewed as having won last night's second presidential debate against Republican challenger Mitt Romney, it will take several days for the repercussions of their match to be seen in most polls.
On Tuesday, several nationwide polls show either candidate up, leaving the result a wash, but in today's Gallup tracking poll, Romney finally broke through the margin of error, leading Obama by an amount larger than can reasonably be expected to be due to randomness.
That means, at least according to one poll, that Romney is officially in the lead in the presidential race. Whether he will maintain his tenuous hold on the lead remains to be seen.
With Obama's well-regarded performance in last night's debate, Romney's lead may be short-lived. While presidential debates rarely affect election outcomes, this year seems to be different.
Romney's aggressive stance at the first presidential debate began a two-week ascent in the polls, culminating in this latest victory. But if trends hold, Obama will begin to climb back into a close tie, or perhaps the lead again.
Tuesday's Gallup poll had put Romney 4 points above Obama, still within the margin of error. But a 1-point slide for both candidates increased that gap to 6 points, an official lead.
A poll from Rasmussen shows Romney up by 1 point, though that firm uses automated "robocalls" to collect data, a technique that tends to skew conservative.
An IBD/TIPP poll from Tuesday has Obama up by 1 point, while a RAND Corporation poll puts him 5.2 points up.
On the flip side, the well-respected Public Policy Polling firm has Romney up by 4 points nationwide on Tuesday.
The Gallup data surveyed "likely voters," a metric usually more accurate than the "registered voters" typically covered by polls.
A Romney rally at this point in the campaign seems unlikely, particularly after last night's debate, so this may be just a blip in the data before the race tightens up again. The answer will unfold in the next few days.
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