"Scoble Says Google Glass Is Doomed," Says Robert Scoble: Long-Term Prospects Still Good

In an ironic nod to overblown technology news headlines, blogger and noted Google Glass-in-shower enthusiast Robert Scoble titled his latest Google+ post "Scoble says Google Glass is doomed." Scoble then lists the reasons why Google Glass will not take off when its consumer edition released (expected sometime in 2014).

If you're not one of of his 4.7+ million followers, here's the gist.

Scoble, who enthusiastically incorporated Glass into many, many aspects of his life after getting a pair the second day it was available in April, has had a long time to think about his year with the device, along with its prospects going forward. In his Google+ post, Scoble weighs the reasons why Google Glass is "doomed" in 2014, but viable in the long run. Among the "doomed" list:

Expectations are too high, Glass is too hard to buy and set up, there are not enough apps, Glass can't handle lots of apps anyway, low battery life (with overheating issues on top), photo sharing and editing is limited, there's no Facebook app, there's no context-based modes, a lack of an app distribution system for Glass developers, and a general fear in the public of full technological ubiquity with wearables (especially those with stealthy cameras).

But Scoble also argues with himself why Glass will eventually do well, if not in 2014 including reasons like:

"Nearly everyone wants to try it," people are more accepting of ubiquitous cameras than you might expect, the developer and battery life problems are problems with a prototype (not a finished product), and technology gets cheaper and Glass will eventually cost under $300.

Scoble admits he gets frustrated with aspects of Google Glass and is scared for his own privacy with the back-facing eye sensor and its possibilities, but that he still loves it. He ends by saying that by 2020, "I'm quite convinced this will be a big deal and there will be lots of competitors by then." He advises Google to reset expectations with a focus on the long run instead of the 2014 consumer edition.

It's true that there are some big expectations for Google Glass in 2014, but some of the overblown tech headlines about Google Glass over the past year were also negative in nature (and often tongue-in-cheek, too, not just Scoble's), tempering those expectations. That actually works in Google's favor, even if the company may not be pleased with the coverage at the time.

It's also true that new technologies take longer than first expected to revolutionize the world - and then they revolutionize the world in ways far beyond expectations (the internet, social media, mobile computing). But that truism has been widely known while simultaneously not stopping early adopters from lining up to buy the newest iAnything for the last ten years - even when, looking back, something like the first generation iPhone had a lot of limitations to work out. And, as Scoble knows, even the prospect of buying a $1500 Google Glass beta was so hot that the company had to use a social media contest to filter the throngs of tech bloggers and developers who wanted to buy it.

Google Glass will be a big thing in the long term future, but it's going to be big in 2014. But Scoble's right: if Glass's 2014 release is only about beating Apple's possible 2014 iWatch, Google is doomed.