The Screen Actors Guild Awards have always been a good indicator of who the acting awards will go to at the Oscars. This year, however, only 14 out of 20 SAG nominees matched the corresponding Oscar categories. Still the actors who are currently frontrunners for their respective categories were nominated and should continue to get a huge boost from a SAG win.
The Best Supporting Actor category is one of the most interesting races in years, as critics award organizations have been split on the winner.
Alan Arkin- The Oscar-winning actor is nominated for his turn in "Argo" as movie producer Lester Siegel. The actor scored his fourth Screen Actors Guild nomination with an ensemble nomination and a supporting actor nod as well. Up to this point, Arkin seems like a weak link in the category as he has not won a single precursor award. However, he is nominated for the Academy Award, the BAFTA and has a tendency to surprise at the SAGs and Oscars. In 2006, Arkin won the Oscar for his turn in "Little Miss Sunshine" but had been under the radar throughout the preceding awards season. The actor had only won a BAFTA and Independent Spirit Award and no one believed he was going to win the top prize. However, on Oscar night he took out both frontrunners Eddie Murphy and Jackie Earle Haley. Arkin could potentially do the same considering how much momentum "Argo" has this year.
Javier Bardem-Bardem was the surprise nominee in this category for his turn as Silva in "Skyfall" as many believed the spot would go to Christoph Waltz ("Django Unchained"), Leonardo Dicaprio ("Django Unchained") or Matthew McConaughey ("Magic Mike"). The Academy Award winner received his third SAG nomination. He previously won for Best Ensemble and Best Supporting Actor in "No Country for Old Men" back in 2008. Bardem has the slimiest possibility of winning since he has no Oscar nomination and has also only received one precursor award (Satellite Award). He is nominated for the BAFTA but the nomination is irrelevant with no Oscar recognition. If Bardem wins this category, the the Best Supporting Actor race will be the most unpredictable race in any category since 2007's Best Supporting Actress contest.
Robert De Niro-The legendary actor Robert De Niro received his second and third SAG nomination this year for "Silver Linings Playbook." He was previously nominated for Best Ensemble for "Marvin's Room." The two-time Oscar winner may be the sentimental choice of the race after receiving two precursor awards (Hollywood Film Awards and Detroit Film Critics). Based on the popularity and momentum of "Silver Linings," the actor could benefit from the fact that this is his best role since the 90s.
Philip Seymour Hoffman-Philip Seymour Hoffman received his ninth nomination at the SAG Awards for his turn as Lancaster Dodd in "The Master." He previously won in 2005 for his turn in "Capote." The actor stands as the frontrunner in the race as he has received 13 awards, including the Critics' Choice and Washington DC Film Critics accolades. The actor is also nominated for the Oscar and BAFTA and may have a chance of winning. However, his failure to procure the Best Supporting Actor Golden Globe could hurt his chances. The fact that he has not shown up to any awards ceremony thus far could also be looked down upon by his peers, who are the voters at the SAGs.
Tommy Lee Jones- Jones received his fourth and fifth nominations for "Lincoln" at the SAG Awards. The actor has yet to be recognized by the organization and may be looking at his first win. "Lincoln" obtained four nominations with SAG and is currently the most nominated film at the Oscars. It is also a favorite to win top honors. The actor, who has received nine precursor awards, stands as Hoffman's toughest competition. However, he has failed to garner top accolades at the Golden Globes and the Critics' Choice.
Predictions: The race stands between two contenders: Philip Seymour Hoffman and Tommy Lee Jones. Both actors have won the most awards and have the most momentum. Jones is probably going to win as "Lincoln" is a top contender while Hoffman's film "The Master" was shut out of every major category.
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