Opening the NFL's annual Wild Card weekend is less an honor than a death wish.
Since 2010, every Saturday afternoon winner has gone on to lose the following weekend. The Seattle Seahawks lost in the Divisional round in 2011; Houston in 2012 and 2013; Indianapolis in 2014; and Carolina last year.
These teams backpedaled into the playoffs, or they advance by being the best of the worst; playing in January on the long-outdated rule that every division winner automatically earns a playoff berth. Save Drew Brees leading New Orleans past lowly Seattle and Andrew Luck's Colts mounting an unprecedented comeback against Kansas City, recent opening-round matchups have lacked star power.
Which leads to Saturday's Wild Card game between the Chiefs and Texans.
Houston won the AFC South by beating Indy, Jacksonville, and Tennessee in five of six meeting; the three teams combined for 15 wins, just one more than Carolina. Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden - who Dallas released before Tony Romo suffered a season-ending injury - headed a quarterback-by-committee that ranked 15th in touchdowns, 18th in passing yards and yards per game, and 30th in completion percentage.
It's commendable, given that former franchise linchpin Andre Johnson left in the offseason and four-time Pro Bowler Arian Foster tore his Achilles tendon in late October. The Texans have few offensive weapons, yet managed to do just enough to stay in contention. Even J.J. Watt can't take all the credit for that.
Kansas City looks to avenge their monumental collapse against Indy two years ago by winning its first postseason game since 1993. To put it in perspective, Joe Montana and Marcus Allen were behind center.
After losing five in a row between September and October, the Chiefs rebounded to win 10 in a row, soaking up a late fall schedule that included Cleveland, Buffalo, Oakland and San Diego twice, and the Joe Flacco-less Baltimore Ravens.
The Chiefs' offense isn't flashy - they're ranked 27th in yards per game - and they are only now starting to find that wide receivers can score, but their defensive core is nothing short of suffocating.
Pro Bowl-bound safety Eric Berry and cornerback Marcus Peters contributed to 10 of the team's 22 interceptions; good enough for second most in the league. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston stamped their ticket to Hawaii on their combined 14 sacks and three fumble recoveries.
The Texans and Chiefs made the playoffs because of two things: superior defenders and a weak schedule. Saturday's Wild Card matchup will be the victor's last chance to work on any glaring deficiencies. Otherwise, history will repeat itself.
When: Jan. 9, 2016
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
Television: ABC/ ESPN
Live stream: WatchESPN
Prediction: Kansas City's defense shut down two the most efficient offenses in the AFC in Pittsburgh and Denver, respectively, during their winning streak. Alex Smith threw for three touchdowns while Hoyer struggled for his one during the Chiefs' Week 1 win over the Texans.
Given both factors, it's unlikely Houston can stop them on either end. Chiefs 24-10
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