Hugo Chavez Cancer Returns: Who Will Succeed Him As Venezuela's Next President?

Bombastic Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced his cancer has returned, paving the way for speculation about his potential successor.

Chavez just won reelection to a fourth presidential term. If he dies or is incapacitated before he can take office in January, the Venezuelan constitution requires that a new presidential election be held.

The same scenario occurs if Chavez cannot complete the first four years of his six-year term.

This is problematic for Chavez, as he has a tight grip on the reins of power. Much of the government's authority flows through him and his charismatic sway over the populace.

Venezuela already has one of the highest murder rates in the world, and violence could explode out of control in a power vacuum caused by Chavez's absence or death. Venezuela also has the highest inflation rate in the world, and the economy could spiral out of control without Chavez's tight fist around it socialized enterprises.

Chavez seems to understand that his time may be short, as he has already attempted to anoint a successor. He has made it clear that he wants his supporters to elect his vice president, Nicolas Maduro, to replace him.

But Chavez's influence, once ironclad, is waning. He won his reelection bid against moderate Henrique Capriles, who had the overwhelming support of expatriate Venezuelans, particularly in the United States, by only 8 points-a huge margin in American politics, but a far cry from Chavez's 2006 victory where he won 63 percent of the vote.

Capriles is still well-positioned to win, especially if a special election was held soon. His ground game is still in place, and his public support, particularly among the young and educated classes who were disappointed by his loss, is still high.

And Capriles could benefit from infighting among Chavez's leftist supporters. It's likely that National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello, a long-time ally of Chavez with a great deal of credibility among revolutionaries, will run for president.

If he does, the leftist vote will be split between Cabella and Maduro, almost ensuring a win for Capriles.

But other candidates could step in, too, as well as monied and influential supporters who understand that a centralized economy like Venezuela offers the potential for a great deal of power and profit to the one in charge.

Chavez has played the role of benevolent dictator for many years, but the next strongman may not be so nice.