NASA Says they Are 99.9% Positive A 5.0 Earthquake Will Hit California by Summer of 2018; U.S. Geological Survey Does Not Agree

It seems like Los Angeles is always on the earthquake watch. New findings have now lead scientists to predict when they think the next "big one" will hit.

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has announced they are pretty sure they know exactly when plates beneath California will begin to shake the Golden State. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory's startling findings believe there is a 99.9 percent chance California can expect a magnitude 5.0 earthquake by the summer of 2018. The report was published in the Earth and Science Journal on Oct. 7. Since then, the predictions have come under scrutiny - with other scientists pinpointing flaws in the ways in which NASA was lead to these numbers.

NASA used a rare seismology study in which the authors are nearly 100 percent positive Los Angeles will be feelling the tremors in the next few years. The seismology study takes into account the magnitude of recent earthquakes, GPS location, and aerial radar.

John Rundle is the co-author of the study. He is also a UC Davis physics and geology professor. Rundle explained to Los Angeles Times "once you get to 1,000 magnitude 3 earthquakes, you expect a magnitude 6." Rundle is referencing what is known as the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, explains RT Network. Gutenberg-Richter states that for every 1,000 M3 earthquakes, there are 100 M4's, 10 M5's, and one M6.

The United States Geological Survey, on the other hand, was quick to correct the figure. They believe the possibility of a big quake is closer to 85 percent, rather than 99.9. They also discounted the accuracy of the method used by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

USGS seismologist Lucy Jones said the Gutenberg-Richter does not indicate when such an earthquake wiould occur. However, Rundle counter-argued her claims, stating made their findings were not based on just one law," but a layering of laws that makes the JPL study worth testing." He also used the Weibull probability law from his engineering experience, which calculates statistics for when a machine might break down cites RT.

"As scientists, we were not putting out an official forecast. We are putting out something in a paper to test," said Andrea Donnellan  who is a Jet Propulsion Laboratory research scientist, to the Los Angeles Times. "If an earthquake happens in three years, we're both right."