Golden State and Cleveland are destined for an NBA Finals rematch. Everyone else is playing for third place.
Sure, San Antonio nabbed coveted free agent power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, and the Clippers usurped DeAndre Jordan from Dallas in a sleepover-standoff at Jordan's house that cost his agent a client and the Mavericks any hope of landing above the Southwest Division cellar, but neither did enough to keep pace with the defending champion Warriors.
The Warriors, for their part, re-signed All-Defensive First Team forward Draymond Green to a team friendly five-year deal. Green took about eight million less than the maximum to stay in the bay area. No such luck for the Cavaliers in negotiations with their own rising star, Tristan Thompson, who is reportedly holding out for a max five-year, $94-million deal; that's just about $18.8 million per year, or about $800,000 less than him much more accomplished teammate Kevin Love will earn this season.
These are trivial concerns for the reigning conference champs, specifically for the Cavs if Love and Kyrie Irving stay healthy long enough to play in June. The real storyline is in what league's other 28 teams do to give LeBron James and Stephen Curry's clubs a worthwhile run.
Here's a look at the dark horse candidates, rookies, and key games that will make or break teams' title chances.
Five pre-All-Star break games to watch
Oct. 27 - Cavaliers at Bulls
Chicago's abysmal performance in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals was their fourth playoff series loss to a James-led team in the last six years. Their opening night tiff won't make up for that, or the Bulls' uninspired 94-73 game six loss, but it'll show if they've done anything to improve since.
Oct. 29 - Mavericks at Clippers
Jordan and the Mavericks will get any awkwardness out of the way early when Dallas heads to Staples Center for a pre-Halloween matchup with the Clippers. The he-said-she-said part of their rivalry is over, but one can be sure bad blood remains, especially between Jordan and Tyson Chandler, who played mediator through the soap opera-like ordeal.
Nov. 11 - Spurs at Blazers
Aldridge left his former Portland Trail Blazers family high and dry by heading south. The four-time All-Star left Rip City with a younger, inexperienced roster that will struggle to match the team's preceding back-to-back 50-win season.
Nov. 19 - Warriors at Clippers
Save Houston's improbable run during last year's semifinal round - only the ninth time an NBA team has come back from a 3-1 series deficit - this would have been the western conference's finals draw. Los Angeles and Golden State arguably make up the league's biggest rivalry, dating back to their memorable seven-game first-round playoff series in 2014.
Dec. 25 - Cavaliers at Warriors
With Love and Irving healthy, this will be the first look at what the Cavs could have faced Golden State with last summer. On Christmas Day, no less.
Rookies to watch
Emmanuel Mudiay (Denver) - Nothing says confidence like trading away a team's starting point guard for an unproven draft pick.
That's what Denver's front office did in sending longtime Nugget Ty Lawson to Houston for Mudiay, the seventh overall pick who averaged 18 points and 5.9 assists per game in China last season. The Congo-born guard, who was denied eligibility to play at SMU, still faced NBA-ready competition in former players like Stephon Marbury Michael Beasley.
Karl-Antony Towns (Minnesota) -Towns' biggest benefit entering in this, his rookie campaign after being selection as No. 1 pick in last spring's draft, is that Kevin Garnett is by his side.
Towns averaged 12.7 PPG and 7.0 RPG through the preseason's first three games. Above that, he bring much needed defense to team ranking 27th in blocks and dead last in defensive rebounding last year. The 19-year-old is averaging about 25 minutes per game now, but his playing time will significantly go up once the season begins.
Stanley Johnson (Detroit) - If it were up to NBA freshmen, Johnson would place second - behind Philadelphia's Jahlil Okafor - in Rookie of the Year voting. That's the kind of confidence the Mater Dei High School-University of Arizona product instills.
Johnson's already leading rookies in preseason scoring, averaging 17.3 points a night, while solidifying his slot as the Pistons' starting small forward. Detroit may not be much to see this year as a whole, but Johnson is a bright spot worth monitoring.
Dark horse candidates
Milwaukee Bucks (41-41 record in 2014-15)
The Bucks got off to a 30-23 start last season behind stellar play from their young core, beginning with standout shooter Giannis Antetokounmpo. The under-the-radar signing of Greg Monroe brings a veteran presence, rebounding, and dependable defense to a team that struggled to find consistency.
With Monroe under the basket, Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton on the wing, and Michael Carter-Williams coming off the bench, Milwaukee has all the making of a dark horse candidate capable of surpassing their 41-win campaign well before April.
Indiana Pacers (38-44 in 2014-15)
How quickly everyone forgot about the Indiana Pacers once Paul George suffered what appeared to be a season-ending leg injury.
The former MVP candidate made it back for the final six games as the Pacers narrowly missed out on the conference's eight playoff seed. While they surely would have given top ranked-Atlanta a run for their money - more of one than New Jersey did, anyway - this Indiana team is ready to showcase what postseason opponents lucked out of.
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