On November 26, the IFP will hand out their prestigious Gotham awards. The winner of the Best feature will be better positioned to get an Oscar nomination come January. However there is no clear frontrunner in the race. The following are my predictions based on the buzz each film has obtained throughout the month.
Best Feature:The Best Feature nominations showcase a widespread variety of films. Two major Oscar contenders are nominated including The Master and Moonrise Kingdom while three smaller films Middle of Nowhere, The Loneliest Planet and Bernie join the list. The Loneliest Planet is the least likely film to win the top award as it has no awards buzz and was altogether a surprise in the category. Bernie was also a big surprise but obtained rave reviews and is directed by a major director Richard Linklater. Still chances look slim for the film. Middle of Nowhere has obtained an incredible amount of buzz as of late with many talking about Oscars. The film while small could surprise and win the top award. But it is Moonrise Kingdom and The Master who have the biggest chances. It all really depends on what mood the Gothams' voters are feeling. They could also choose two films like they did last year when they picked both Beginners and The Tree of Life for the Best Feature.
My Pick to win: The Master
Best Documentary: The best documentary award features a list of films that very few have talked about including Detropia, Marina Abramovic: The Artist is Present, Room 237 and The Waiting Room. All were all critically acclaimed but did not create any buzz and were all surprise nominees.
My pick to win: How to Survive the Plague
Best Ensemble Performance: The ensemble award can usually help predict the ultimate best feature winner. Winter's Bone, Beginner's and The Hurt Locker all won Ensemble awards and went on to win best feature. This year two films in the best feature category are nominated in this category. Bernie's cast is nominated and while it does not seem like a likely choice it can easily win and then take the ultimate award. However Moonrise Kingdom is the most likely choice as it is easily the frontrunner to win best feature. However its biggest competition is Silver Linings Playbook which was surprising not nominated for best feature. Playbook is on many Oscar prognosticators' list to win the best picture and Jennifer Lawrence looks to be the frontrunner to win the best actress award. Your Sister' Sister and Safety Not Guaranteed seem to be in the race just for the ride.
My pick to win: Moonrise Kingdom.
Breakthrough Director: Four directors on this list seem to be filler for the ultimate winner. Zal Batmangli for Sound of my Voice, Brian M Cassidy and Melanie Shatzky for Francine, Jason Cortlund and Julia Halperin for Now, Forager, and Antonio Mendez Espara for Aqui y Alla all had wonderful acheievements and directed with their own flair. However Benh Zeitlin created this year's indie darling and is the most likely winner. If the Gotham's voters decide to be bold they will chose another film but that does not seem possible this year.
My pick to win: Benh Zeitlin for Beast of the Southern Wild
Breakthrough Actor: The Gotham's have not always picked the expected winner as they sometimes go for the most unexpected actor. Last year Felicity Jones won the award over favorites Elizabeth Olsen and Shailene Woodley. In 2010 Ronald Bronstein beat out Jennifer Lawrence for her Oscar nominated performance in Winter's Bone. In 2009 Catalina Saavedra beat Jeremy Renner's Oscar nominated performance in The Hurt Locker. This year Thure Lindhardt is nominated for Keep the Lights On while Melanie Lynskey is nominated for Hello I Must Go. Mike Birbiglia is nominated for Sleep Walk with Me and Emayatzy Corinealdi is nominated for Middle of Nowhere. The presumed frontrunner and Oscar hopeful is Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild. However Emayatzy Corinealdi can easily surprise as her film is nominated for the top prize while Beasts of the Southern Wild was snubbed for the category.
My Pick to Win: Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild.
Best Film Not Playing in Theaters: This category is always interesting because it showcases young talent and very diverse films that unfortunately no one has had the chance to see. There is never any idea as to who will win and that is why award always becomes the most surprising. This year's nominees are Kid-Thing, An Oversimplification of Her, Beauty, Red Flag, Sun Don't Shine and Tiger Tail in Blue.
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