Presidential Election 2012: Our Current Electoral College Prediction and Map

With all the predictions for tonight's election flying around, it's time for me to finally weigh in. It's only fair that I make an official prediction, so at the very least, I can have my error paraded in front of me tomorrow.

As we all know, the popular vote will be close, and relatively unimportant. Still, I agree with the majority of pundits. Obama has a very slight edge in the popular vote, a lead he regained less than a week ago, but one that's been growing steadily, albeit meekly.

The time for trends is over, and I think the wheel will stop spinning with Obama on top, by less than 1 percent.

As for the real race, the Electoral College, that comes down to the swing states.

First, the initial tallies. Obama has 206 electoral votes secure in very blue states. Romney has 191 in red states.

I give North Carolina to Romney, easily. He's led there in nearly every poll for the last month.

In the same way, I give Pennsylvania to Obama. It's only technically a swing state, as the president's lead there is always 5 points or less, but it's never shown any sign of heading in Romney's direction.

I also give Michigan to Obama. While Romney's father was governor of the state, Obama's auto-industry bailout is too popular. Whatever you might think Romney meant by "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt," in the minds of Rust Belt blue-collar workers it means Romney isn't on their side.

Wisconsin is much the same as Michigan. Though it is Paul Ryan's home state, cars are as popular as cheese there, and Scott Walker's brutal crackdown on unions has soured much of the public on Republicans, even if they don't necessarily want to recall their governor.

And Nevada also goes to Obama, as his support has never wavered there, thanks in large part to strong Latino support.

Now we come to the more difficult states.

While Florida has been red since the first presidential debate, Obama's support has been growing, and last night, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight called it at a little more than 50 percent for Obama. I'm going to be a little conservative with this one and say it goes to Romney.

In Virginia, my home state, Obama has made some progress in the last few days. This one is so close, it's really just a coin flip, but my gut tells me Romney takes it.

Same goes for Colorado. Maybe some part of me wants this to be a photo finish, but I think Colorado swings red this year.

But that's all the good news I predict for Romney.

He has a good chance in New Hampshire, and that one's a tough call. Of the 10 residents in Dixville Notch, N.H., the first town in the country to vote each election, the votes split for the first time ever.

But Obama's ground game there has been impressive, so I think he takes it.

Iowa was on the fence for a while, and Romney has been stumping there constantly, but polls show a solid, if narrow, lead for Obama.

And Ohio, the grand prize. The election really does come down to just this one state, and both campaigns knew it. They, and private groups, poured over $180 million in advertisements into the state.

But once more, Obama's ground game comes out on top. Polls have been steady for him the entire campaign.

So the final tally:

Colorado: Romney - 9 electoral votes
Florida: Romney - 29 electoral votes
Iowa: Obama - 6 electoral votes
Michigan: Obama - 16 electoral votes
Nevada: Obama - 6 electoral votes
New Hampshire: Obama - 4 electoral votes
North Carolina: Romney - 15 electoral votes
Ohio: Obama - 18 electoral votes
Pennsylvania: Obama - 20 electoral votes
Virginia: Romney - 13 electoral votes
Wisconsin: Obama - 10 electoral votes

Obama: 201 + 95 = 281 electoral votes
Romney: 191 + 66 = 257 electoral votes

Obama wins, by a small but significant margin.