Hurricane Sandy put me out of commission for a few days, so we have a lot of polls to catch up on.
With the election just five days away, tons of polls from critical swing states are pouring in, and it looks like President Obama's grip on the Electoral College is holding strong, for now.
Four polls in Iowa released over the last two days are split down the middle. A WeAskAmerica poll in the state shows Obama up 2 points over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, 49 percent to 47 percent.
And an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll there gives Obama a whopping 6-point advantage, 50 percent to 44 percent.
But a University of Iowa poll put Romney up by a point, 45 percent to 44 percent.
And a Rasmussen poll concurs, giving Obama a 1-point lead in Iowa, 49 percent to 48 percent.
A WeAskAmerica poll in Colorado has Obama up by 3 points, while a Rasmussen poll there puts Romney in the lead by the same margin.
Three polls in Florida lean slightly Romney's way.
A WeAskAmerica poll there puts Romney ahead by a point, while a Gravis poll says Romney's lead is 3 points. But a CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac poll says Obama is leading by a point.
Polls in Virginia are also mixed. A CBS/NYT poll has Obama up by 2 points, but a poll from Roanoke College says Romney is up by 5 points.
And the news from Ohio is all bad for Romney. A CBS/NYT poll gives Obama a 5-point lead in the crucial swing state. And an Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati survey has Obama up by 2 points.
This may seem like mostly a wash, but Obama has a better position in the Electoral College. The more swing states that teeter back and forth between the candidates, the better for Obama and the worse for Romney.
While, of course, either candidate would prefer to have as many states in their pocket as possible, Romney needs the swing states, while Obama just needs to keep Romney from taking too many of them.
If Iowa, Colorado and Virginia stay ambivalent until the election, Obama still has a clear path to the 270 electoral votes he needs for reelection.
If Romney takes Florida, it doesn't guarantee his victory, and Obama can still win.
As long as Obama maintains his lead in Ohio, Romney must win every other contested swing state in order to prevail. And Obama still holds a strong lead in Nevada, and his odds are at least even in Colorado, Iowa, Virginia and New Hampshire.
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