Election Prediction Polls 2012: More Americans Predict an Obama Win Than a Romney Win

A new report by Gallup revealed that most Americans believe that President Barack Obama will be re-elected on Nov. 6 over Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, by 54 percent to 34 percent. The report, released on Wednesday, also found that "slightly more Americans now do not have an opinion either way."

According to Gallup, the reports results are based on interviews conducted during their Daily election tracking survey from October 27 to 28, before Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast. It noted that it is uncertain how the storm will affect voter preferences next week.

Despite a highly competitive race between Obama and Romney, Gallup said, "the majority of Americans continue to project an Obama win on Nov. 6." However, many national polls, including the Gallup Daily tracking, show Romney with a slight edge. According to Gallup, Obama is doing better in several key swing states that will ultimately decide the election winner.

The poll conducted by Gallup also revealed that Americans believe that "the incumbent has a natural advantage when competing for a new term." This was evident in polls conducted during the 2004 and 1996 presidential elections with incumbents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

In the 2004 poll, 56 percent of voters viewed George W. Bush as the probable winner. In 1996, "an overwhelming majority (69 percent) saw incumbent Bill Clinton as more likely to prevail than his opponent Robert Dole (24 percent)."

The results found, unsurprisingly, that each party largely predicts their own candidate as the winner. According to the poll, 86 percent of Democrats predict that Obama will win, with only eight percent predicting that Romney will win. Conversely, 71 percent of Republicans predict a Romney win, whereas about a fifth predict Obama will win.

Independents predict President Obama will win by over 20 percentage points, 52 percent to 32 percent, the report stated.

According to Gallup, "Americans have a good track record regarding their collective prediction of the outcome of presidential elections, correctly predicting the winner of the popular vote in final Gallup surveys taken in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008."

Gallup added that despite trailing behind Romney in most national polls, he might have a slight advantage as an incumbent. The prediction is also a reflection of a lower confidence level among Republicans for their candidate, Gallup stated.

With less than a week left before the election, both candidates will have to work hard to attract voters in key swing states. Obama's campaigning job has become much harder to accomplish now that he has had to turn his attention to the East Coast and the damage left behind in Hurricane Sandy's aftermath.