By now, it has been widely acknowledged that Ohio is arguably the most important swing state in the presidential race this election year-even with key swing states Michigan and New Hampshire still in play-but a new poll from Rasmussen Reports says that Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes might actually be the "new Ohio."
Currently, Real Clear Politics projects President Barack Obama narrowly ahead of Republican challenger Mitt Romney by a 2.3 percent margin, 49.3 percent to 47 percent. However, this includes a new Rasmussen reports poll released Thursday that showed the Badger State all tied at 49 apiece for both candidates.
According to pollster Scott Rasmussen's Friday column, Wisconsin's importance, particularly for the Romney campaign, is amplified this year in this close race that might even create a split decision. According to Rasmussen's projections, Obama is likely to win 237 Electoral College votes, putting him only 2 votes ahead of Romney's projected 235 electoral votes.
Should Romney lose Ohio-where Rasmusssen projects he has never led in-all paths to a Romney victory include a must-win in Wisconsin.
"If Ohio goes for the president, Romney has a few perilous paths to victory available to him. All require him to carry Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes," Rasmussen writes.
The simplest path, according to him would involve Romney wins in Wisconsin and Colorado, as well as one other swing state in that case. However, both are close races and Obama is projected to be tied with Romney in Colorado as of Thursday in Real Clear Politics polls.
Meanwhile, Obama is currently projected to be ahead in New Hampshire by a narrow 1.1 percent edge, 48.3 percent to 47.2 percent, Real Clear Politics projected Thursday. Those projections include the first-ever poll from New Hampshire-based New England College, which puts Obama ahead of Romney by at least three percentage points, 49 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error for the new poll was 4.1 percent.
"The poll shows candidates for President have different strengths," Dr. Ben Tafoya, director of the Polling Center in New England College's Center for Civic Engagement, was quoted to say in a statement about the poll. "President Obama has a solid lead for voters under the age of 65. However, former Governor Romney leads with those over the age of 65. This is a similar trend to the voting in 2008 when then candidate Obama had a smaller margin over Senator McCain among older voters."
The poll of 517 likely voters also found that President Obama's job approval rating stood at 50 percent, while 45 percent of likely voters saying they disapproved of the job he is doing. Like with most polls, the New England College poll found that Obama was narrowly favored by women ahead of Romney, while men were actually split on the two candidates.
And in Michigan, the battleground Wolverine State is projected to be leaning towards Obama, 48.8 percent to 44.8 percent over Romney, a slim four-point advantage. This includes a new Tuesday poll from Foster McCollum White Baydoun showing the race deadlocked between Obama and Romney at 47-all.
In an Associated Press story that ran in the Dallas Morning News Friday, Bill Ballenger, editor of non-partisan publication Inside Michigan Politics, indicated that while Michigan was long seen as a safe Obama state, the race might be much closer than meets the eye.
"The polls here tightened after the first debate and stayed there," said Ballenger. "Michigan is still in bad shape."
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