While Republican challenger Mitt Romney continues to solidify his support in Southern swing states, there is only bad news for him coming out of Ohio.
A Rasmussen poll in North Carolina has Romney leading President Obama by 6 points in North Carolina, 52 percent to 46 percent.
A Sunshine State News/VSS poll in Florida shows Romney ahead by 5-points, while a Rasmussen poll there gives Romney a 2-point advantage.
A Purple Strategies poll in Virginia has the candidates tied, Along with Colorado, Virginia has been the most consistently ambivalent swing state.
Another Purple Strategies poll in Colorado has Obama up by a point.
But in Ohio a trio of polls shows Obama ahead in the critical swing state.
A CNN/ORC poll gives Obama a 4-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 46 percent.
An ARG poll has Obama up by 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent.
And a Purple Strategies poll concurs, giving Obama a 2-point advantage, 46 percent to 44 percent.
Romney still has the edge in national polls, with his lead in the Gallup daily tracking poll climbing back to 5 points.
But the popular vote doesn't decide the winner, as Al Gore found out in 2000 when he lost Florida and the election to George W. Bush.
A popular vote/Electoral College split decision has only happened four times in American history, but it seems possible once more this year if the disparity between the national polls and the swing state polls continues.
Romney's lead in solidly red states tends to be higher than Obama's lead in solidly blue states this year, but those extra votes won't make a difference in the Electoral College.
And if Romney can't shore up his support in Ohio, the road to the White House is difficult, and probably closed.
As the polls stand now, I honestly can't see a path to 270 Electoral votes for Romney without Ohio.
He would need to hold onto Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, while also sweeping Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Obama is ahead in both Iowa and Nevada, and has been consistently.
Romney could swap out Wisconsin for Iowa and Nevada, and one recent polls shows the candidates tied there, but Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker's fight with unions has soured many in the state on Republicans.
Michigan would swing the election for Romney, as well, but there is strong support for Obama's auto-industry bailout there, a move Romney opposed.
The Republican has no choice but to focus as much of his energy on winning Ohio, while making sure he holds onto tenuous leads in the South.
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