Presidential Polls 2012: Romney Gains in Gallup Poll, Above Margin of Error Again, But What About the Electoral College?

Republican challenger Mitt Romney gained back some of the support he lost to President Obama in the national polls over the last few days.

The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Romney surging ahead to a 4-point lead over the president after dropping to a 3-point lead three days ago.

That was down from a high of 7 points last week.

Thus, these latest results put Romney's lead back outside the margin of error.

The Rasmussen tracking poll is unchanged from yesterday, with Romney leading by 3 points.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll is also unchanged, with Romney edging out Obama by a point. Unlike the other two polls, the ABC poll only started showing a Romney lead a few days ago.

Lately, the national polls have shown a tightening in the race, with Romney's bounce in the polls after the first presidential debate subsiding into a slight lead.

Now Romney seems to be gathering more momentum.

He is polling better in some important swing states, too.

He has slight but steady leads in Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, and seems poised to sweep those Southern swing states.

But Obama's position in the Electoral College is better than Romney's, and has been for almost the entire campaign.

Last week, a string of positive polling moved North Carolina into Romney's column, but on Thursday, it flipped back to a tossup, as Obama made small gains. Romney is still favored to win there, though.

Obama leads on Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Nevada. The candidates are polling evenly in Colorado.

But Obama holds a clear, though small, lead in the critical swing state of Ohio.

No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio, and Romney's chances of doing just that are difficult, if not impossible given the current state of the map.

If he can't make up ground there in the next week and a half, it won't matter what the national polls. Say. As goes the Electoral College, so goes the presidency.

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