Presidential Polls 2012: No Post-Debate Bounce for Obama?

We now have a few more polls with data gathered after the final presidential debate between President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

They're mixed.

The Gallup daily tracking poll showed Romney losing two points, though he still leads Obama by 3 percent.

The Rasmussen tracking poll remained the same, with Romney up by 4 points.

The IBD/TIPP poll has Obama up by 3 points, 1 point higher than the previous day.

And the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll also remains the same, with Romney up 1 point over Obama for the second day in a row.

Now that the ABC poll has post-debate data, its Romney rally is harder to discount.

All of these national polls aggregate data taken daily, averaging the results over either the last week or three days.

I expected a small but effective bounce for the president in the days following the debate, and it looked like that was beginning to happen yesterday.

However, with the ABC poll today, any changes in the national polling for the candidates look like a wash.

Ignoring the absolute support for right now and looking only at the trends, Obama was up or steady in the Gallup, Rasmussen and IBD polls.

But Romney is up and holding in the ABC poll, which up until yesterday had shown Obama holding onto a slight lead, even while most other national polls showed Romney rallying after Obama's poor performance in the first presidential debate and taking the lead for the last two weeks.

Still, the election won't be decided by the popular vote. Whichever candidate hits 270 votes in the Electoral College wins, and Obama is still a slight favorite there.

Recent swing state polls show him leading in Ohio and Nevada, and he has an edge in most Iowa polls.

I think it's likely Pennsylvania will be called for him soon, like North Carolina was called for Romney last week.

If Obama doesn't get a bounce from the debate, it will be difficult for him to overcome Romney's momentum before the election, which is less than two weeks away.

There are no more big political events or televised stages to speak from, and even fewer undecided voters yet to make up their minds.

It looks like this race will be a grind all the way through to the election, and whichever candidate has the better ground game will likely be the winner.

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