Post-Debate Presidential Polls 2012: Did Obama Get a Big Post-Debate "Bounce"?

Traditional wisdom says presidential debates don't affect election outcomes, but this year has proven to be an outlier. Will President Obama get a big "bounce" in the polls from his winning performance in Monday night's final presidential debate?

It was the last time either Obama or Republican challenger Mitt Romney will have such a large and interested audience before the election next month. Given how the first debate sent Romney soaring in the polls and the second debate halted his ascent as the race ground to a frustrating tie, it's likely that whatever the fallout from this debate, the candidates' trajectories will be difficult to sway.

Obama's chances to take back the race look good right now. Instant polls taken right after the debate consistently show him to be the winner, though not by as wide a margin as Romney had in the first debate.

But audiences for third debates are historically lower than earlier debates. The electorate is very partisan, and only a few persuadable voters are still out there, especially after the first two debates.

And while the candidates snuck in some domestic policy, this debate was ostensibly about foreign policy, which polls show is a low priority for voters this year.

Still, by any measure this election is close, and even a small bump in the polls might make enough of a difference to decide the race.

While Romney either has a slight edge in the popular vote or is tied with the president, Obama has a slight lead in crucial swing states, particularly Ohio.

FiveThirtyEight predicts even a half-point bounce for Obama would translate into a 5 percent bump in his chances to win the election. A 1-point bounce would increase it by 10 percent, and 2 points would turn into a 15 percent increase, putting him at an 85 percent chance to win the election, higher than he's been since before the first presidential debate.

In comparison, Romney had a nearly 5-point bounce after the first debate, catapulting him into the lead.

While the confluence of factors that led to Romney's rally is unlikely to repeat itself in Obama's favor, the president will likely see a small rise in his numbers as he did after the second debate. Whether it will be enough to carry him through the next two weeks to Election Day remains to be seen.

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