Presidential Polls 2012: How Long Can Romney's Post-Debate Bounce Last?

History tells us that a presidential challenger may get a small bounce in the polls after their first debate with an incumbent president, but that bounce will be short-lived and won't have much effect on the outcome of the election.

It looks like this time, history may be wrong.

After President Obama's dismal performance in the first presidential debate in Denver last week, Mitt Romney didn't bounce--he soared. And he hasn't landed yet.

Immediately after the debate, polls showed Romney scored a record high percentage of viewers who though he'd won.

As expected, Romney's poll numbers edged up the following day while Obama's remained static, as undecided voters made up their minds to throw their support behind the upstart who'd impressed them with his confidence and passion the night before.

But it didn't stop there.

Over the weekend, Obama's numbers began to drop, while Romney's continued to climb. This was unprecedented behavior, and Democrats hoped it was just a polling fluke.

But by this week, it's become obvious that there is sustained and insistent growth in Romney's numbers, and a definite slide in Obama's.

One Pew Research poll even showed Romney pulling off a huge upset, with a 4-point lead over Obama. And this was no fly-by-night poll thrown together by a partisan group--the Pew Research Center is one of the best outfits around, so Democrats couldn't just shrug off the results.

Now, two more polls, from Gallup and Reuters/Ipsos show the president tied with Romney among likely voters, when just a month ago he had leads of 8 percent in most polls.

Obviously, if these trends continue, the Obama campaign is in trouble. But how long can Romney sustain the momentum from his debate performance? On Thursday, the vice-presidential nominees meet for the first and only time, and for once, the battle may actually have a huge impact on the election.

Vice President Joe Biden will try to halt Romney's rising star in its tracks, dragging the media's eyes away from the challenger and presenting Obama's defense of his first term in clear prose that the president just couldn't muster last week.

This election has always been Obama's to lose. The question is will he?

Related Stories
>>Presidential Polls 2012: Romney Ties Obama in Latest Reuters/Ipsos Poll
>>Latest Obama vs. Romney Polls, Map of States: Electoral Map In Flux, Romney Makes Gains In Swing States
>>Presidential Polls 2012: Romney, Obama at Highest Favorability Ratings of Campaign, Close In Swing States
>>Presidential Polls 2012: Romney Leads Obama By 4 Points In Latest Pew Research US Poll