When the Academy Awards announce the winner for Best Picture this year, audiences will either be shocked or utterly annoyed by how predictable the Oscars have become. This year's Oscar conversation has circled around just how unpredictable the race has been so far; the precursor awards, particularly the guild awards, have not come to a consensus on front-runners for the Academy Awards. As a result, the race will be a fight between three films. Previous Best Picture winners have included "Argo," "The Artist," "The King's Speech," "The Hurt Locker," "Slumdog Millionaire," and "No Country for Old Men."
"American Hustle" - Charles Roven and Richard Suckle are receiving their first nomination while Megan Ellison is receiving her third Oscar nomination. Jonathan Gordon is also receiving his second nomination. "American Hustle" is one of the favorites to win especially after winning the Screen Actors Guild award for Best Ensemble, an award that many pundits consider a prescient precursor. In 2005 "Crash" took home the award for Best Ensemble and that helped the film win the Oscar. "American Hustle" also won at the New York Film Critics and the Golden Globe for Best Comedy. However, "American Hustle" was not successful in winning the writers Guild of America and lost the Directors Guild. As a result, the David O. Russell film has some weaknesses and could lose.
"Captain Phillips" - Scott Rudin is receiving his sixth Oscar nomination while Dana Brunetti is receiving his second nomination. Michael Deluca is also receiving his third nomination. The three producers recently worked together on "The Social Network" for which they all received nominations for Best Picture. This year "Captain Phillips" has been a strong candidate receiving nominations for Best Picture at the BAFTA, Golden Globe, Critics Choice and Producers Guild of America awards. However, it has yet to win a single Best Picture precursor. Additionally, it failed to receive Oscar nominations in the Best Picture and Best Actor races, categories which most pundits believed were locks. "Captain Phillips" could have been a bigger contender had it won more precursors and had it gotten more nominations.
"Dallas Buyers Club" - Robbie Brenner and Rachel Winter received their first nominations at the Academy Awards. The Jean-Marc Vallee film was the big surprise of the category as many organizations including the BAFTA, the Golden Globe and Critics Choice ignored it. The film was overlooked because the actor's performances got all the attention. While the film has six nominations and even an editing nomination, the movie has very little chance of winning the Best Picture.
"Gravity" - Alfonso Cuaron received his sixth nomination at the Academy Awards and David Heyman received his first nomination. "Gravity" is perceived as the front-runner after winning at the Producers Guild of America and the Directors Guild awards. The movie also won five critics organizations for Best Picture including the Los Angeles Film Critics. The movie is also predicted to win the majority of the technical awards as well as the director accolade. However, "Gravity" was weakened by the fact that it did not receive a writing nomination. Additionally it was not nominated at the SAG award for Best Ensemble; ever since the SAG awards were created the Best Picture winner has always been nominated for Best Ensemble at the Guild ceremony. Additionally, "Gravity" did not manage to take home trophies at the BAFTA, the Golden Globe or the Critics Choice awards. While the Oscars love special effects driven movies they have rarely given the Best Picture award to a science-fiction film.
"Her" - For her work on Spike Jonze's film Megan Ellison received her third nomination for Best Picture while Jonze received his fourth nomination at the Academy Awards. Vincent Landay garnered his first nod. "Her" was a popular film with the critics winning five Best Picture awards including with the National Board of Review and Los Angeles Film Critics. However, when it came time for the guilds to hand out trophies, the film got snubbed in major categories including the SAG's coveted Best Ensemble award. And at the Academy Awards, the film failed to get a single acting nomination, a directing nomination and even failed to get a an editing nomination, a nomination that's traditionally crucial to Best Picture success at the Oscars—no film since 1981 has won the Best Picture without an editing nomination. "Her" might win a Best Screenplay award but it is unlikely to take the grand prize.
"Nebraska" - Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa received their first nominations for "Nebraska." The Alexander Payne movie was one of the favorites at the beginning of the race especially after winning a prize at the Cannes Film Festival. However, the movie fizzled out as mass audiences did not respond to it and the Golden Globes failed to award it Best Picture. While it received six nominations including Best Director, "Nebraska" will go home empty handed on Oscar Sunday.
"Philomena" - Gabrielle Tana received her first nomination at the Academy Awards while Steve Coogan garnered his second nomination. Tracey Seaward also obtained his second nomination after being nominated for "The Queen." "Philomena" was the biggest surprise film of the year. The Golden Globes and BAFTAs endorsed the film with Best Picture nominations, but they were never seen as big predictors for Oscar success. With very little buzz and no precursor awards, the Stephen Frears film will not win this year.
"12 Years a Slave" - Brad Pitt received his fifth nomination for the Academy Awards while Dede Gardner garnered her second nomination. Meanwhile, Jeremy Kleiner and Anthony Katagas received their first nominations. Director Steve McQueen was also nominated as a producer and is likely to win the Oscar in this category. The movie is currently the front-runner after winning Best Film at more than 20 organizations including the BAFTA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice and PGA. However, it lost the SAG Best Ensemble award and did not qualify for the WGA. It also lost the DGA award and that weakened its chances. Additionally, the movie has been criticized for being too harsh and some Academy members have been scared to watch it. While the film could win the award, it will need multiple accolades before taking home Best Picture.
"The Wolf of Wall Street" - Martin Scorsese received his 12th nomination for the Oscars while Leonardo DiCaprio garnered his fifth nomination. The other two producers, Joey McFarland and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, are first time nominees. "The Wolf of Wall Street" was one of the films that most pundits predicted would get nominated but one that is unlikely to win as it has not won a single precursor and the Academy objected to it at many screenings due to the movie's vulgar nature.
Predictions: "12 Years a Slave" is the obvious choice, but if the Academy wants to go with a lighter or more technologically innovative film, "Gravity" or "American Hustle" will win.
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