Based on the first three film awards ceremonies this year, it seems likely that the Best Picture category will be split throughout the rest of awards season.
On Monday, the Gotham awards handed the Best Feature award to "Inside Llewyn Davis," which beat "12 Years a Slave." On Tuesday, the New York Film Critics gave their Best Picture award to "American Hustle," and on Wednesday "Her" went home with the Best Picture from the National Board of Review. Both "American Hustle" and "Her" benefited from these wins; they were not expected to win. "Her" was especially never seen as a big contender for Best Picture. However, because every single one of NBR's Best Picture choices in the past 13 years has ended up getting nominated at the Academy Awards, this is a significant win.
While these organizations are known for picking different films there is usually a consensus between two of them. Last year, the NYFCC and the NBR both chose "Zero Dark Thirty," which led the film to sweep a number of critics' organizations. The same thing happened in 2010 when "The Social Network" won both prizes and went on to win most of the critic groups.
On Sunday, two more critic groups are expected to hand out awards, the Los Angeles Film Critics and the Boston Critics. Both groups are very different with LA being more inclined toward indie and high-end films while Boston prefers mainstream and consensus films. With neither group agreeing on films thus far, it is likely "Gravity," "Inside Llewyn Davis" and "12 years a Slave" could slip away with wins between these groups.
However, the category can open up even more if these groups go for "The Wolf of Wall Street," "Rush," "All is Lost," "Nebraska" or "Captain Phillips."
For now it is important to know that the race is still anyone's game.
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