The directors nominations are sometimes the most difficult to figure out because the Academy tends to surprise. Last year, David O. Russell ("Silver Lings Playbook"), Benh Zeitlin ("Beasts of the Southern Wild") and Michael Haneke ("Amour") shocked when they were nominated; virtually no one had them on their radar. And many more were surprised when Ben Affleck ("Argo") and Kathryn Bigelow ("Zero Dark Thirty") weren't nominated.
This year, there are 10 directors that are considered front-runners for the nominations and a few others who are considered long-shots.
Steve McQueen has long been considered a favorite to win the award. His most recent directorial effort, "12 Years A Slave," has been universally loved by the critics and is currently the front-runner on many lists.
Alfonso Cuaron is also a considered a lock for the nomination. "Gravity" is not only garnering rave reviews, but is racking up millions at the box office. Cuaron has never been nominated, but with so much around the film it is very likely the director will be shortlisted.
Paul Greengrass was nominated in 2007 for "United 93" and is likely to get a nomination for "Captain Phillips." The director is one of the most respected in the industry and the film has been successful both critically and at the box office.
Two directors are at the top of many lists: David O. Russell and Martin Scorsese. With Russell scoring nominations for his last two efforts, pundits have put him at the top of the list for his movie "American Hustle." Scorsese has also been nominated for every single film except one ("Shutter Island") that he has produced in the 2000s. As a result, "The Wolf of Wall Street" is being put at the top of many lists as well. However, both of these films have to yet to screen for critics and that could hurt their chances.
Joel and Ethan Coen have long been Academy favorites and have a good chance with "Inside LLewyn Davis." The film has been building a lot of buzz over the past six months and with a Grand Prix award at Cannes it is likely the Academy may go for this film. Additionally, when the Coen's are not on the radar they have a tendency to surprise. In 2009, "A Serious Man" was nominated for Best Picture after pundits had forgotten about the movie, and in 2010 the directors were nominated for "True Grit" replacing Christopher Nolan who most pundits thought would be nominated.
Alexander Payne is another director the Academy loves. His last two films have been nominated for Best Picture and Best Director. "Nebraska" is coming off successful festival runs and a great opening weekend. With no A-List stars though, the film has an uphill battle. However, great reviews may put Payne on the radar.
Spike Jonze is another director that could surprise as he did in 1999 when he was nominated for "Being John Malkovich." "Her" is getting buzz, especially for Scarlett Johansson. If the film continues to build on its hype, Jonze may have a shot at the nomination.
Two others include newcomer Ryan Coogler ("Fruitvale Station") who hopes to be the next Benh Zeitlin, and J.C. Chandor ("All is Lost"), whose film has disappointed at the box office.
Long-shots include Lee Daniel for "Lee Daniel's The Butler," Ron Howard for "Rush," John Lee Hancock for "Saving Mr. Banks," Denis Villeneuve for "Prisoners," Stephen Frears for "Philomena," Woody Allen for "Blue Jasmine" and Richard Linklater for "Before Midnight."
First Predictions
1. Steve McQueen - "12 Years a Slave"
2. Alfonso Cuaron - "Gravity"
3. Paul Greengrass - "Captain Phillips"
4. David O. Russell - "American Hustle"
5. Joel and Ethan Coen - "Inside Llewyn Davis"
Contenders
6. Martin Scorsese - "The Wolf of Wall Street"
7. Alexander Payne - "Nebraska"
8. Spike Jonze - "Her"
9. J.C. Chandor - "All is Lost"
10. Ryan Coogler - "Fruitvale Station"
Long Shots
11. Lee Daniel - "Lee Daniel's The Butler"
12. Ron Howard - "Rush"
13. John Lee Hancock - "Saving Mr. Banks"
14. Denis Villeneuve - "Prisoners"
15. Stephen Frears - "Philomena"
16. Woody Allen - "Blue Jasmine"
17. Richard Linklater - "Before Midnight"
