Shoppers Expected to Boost Holiday Spending 9.1%, Surveys Predict

The government shutdown has not hampered Americans' prospective holiday plans.

Despite the shutdown, Americans, on average, expect to spend $786 on holiday gifts this year, which is similar to holiday spending estimates from the past two years, according to Gallup.com. The average is a harbinger of sales growth, which is important in the aftermath of the government shutdown. 

Almost nine in 10 U.S. adults say that they will spend money this year on holiday (mostly Christmas) gifts. Thirty percent--which is the same percentage as last year-- plan to spend at least $1,000, and half plan to spend at least $500. Only 3 percent plan to spend less than $100. 

The figures are based on an Oct. 3-6 Gallup poll, conducted during the first few days of the federal government shutdown. The poll numbers are based on telephone interviews of a random sample of 1,028 adults aged 18 and older. 

The legislative impasse and resulting shutdown embittered consumers, lessening their confidence in the economy and their perceptions of their standard of living. Yet, Americans' predictions for holiday spending is the highest since 2007, which could be an indicator of consumer resilience. 

Now that the shutdown is over, consumers' spending predictions could inflate further. Gallup's November holiday spending forecast could be a good predictor that holiday sales will increase even more.

Gallup has been conducting the November Christmas spending poll since 1999, and it has been a good predictor of holiday sales changes. When the poll shows that consumers' projected holiday spending is down or slightly up, retail sales growth tends to be average or above average. 

Even if consumers' projected spending stays at the same level into November, the poll suggests that 2013 spending will grow between 3.7 percent and 4.0 percent over last year's level, which is comparable to 2012. It is also slightly above the average 3.3 percent increase of the last 10 years. 

The percentage of Americans saying they will spend less has declined or stagnated since the 2008 recession, and the percentage saying they will spend more--a small 14 percent-- has increased. Today's figures match the pre-recession percentages from 2002 through 2007.  

Hence, the poll allows retailers to have cautious optimism about the 2013 holiday season. The predictions suggest a nearly 4 percent increase in year-over-year sales, and is markedly better than the 2008-2009 holiday seasons. 

More consumers are also planning to shop online. A poll conducted by Deloitte LLP shows that U.S. shoppers expect to spend 9.1 percent more on holiday gifts this year, with more consumers planning to buy gifts online than at discount stores for the first time ever, according to Businessweek. 

Deloitte's poll of 5,018 consumers, which was conducted before the government shutdown, revealed that consumers plan on spending an average of $421 on holiday gifts, which differs from Gallup's findings. About 47 percent of consumers plan to make purchases online, while 44 percent plan to buy gifts at discount stores. 

Online shopping has surpassed traditional gift-buying for the first time in the survey's 15 years. About 76 percent of respondents cited convenience as the main reason for shopping online, with price being a close second. 

"Shoppers put a premium on both their time and shopping experience," said Alison Paul, who leads Deloitte's retail group in Chicago. 

Consumers who shop online, mobile devices and in stores are likely to spend 76 percent more than those who only visit retail stores, according to the survey. 

Most consumers also plan to do their shopping early and beat the holiday rush. About 30 percent say they'll complete their holiday shopping by early November, and one-quarter plan to shop on Black Friday.