Oscar 2013 Predictions, Analysis: Is Naomi Watts Front-Runner for Lead Actress? Thespian to Star in Three Films

The Best Actress race is heating up with Naomi Watts in the lead. The actress will release three films this year for which she has already scored strong reviews.

Her first film of the season will be "Adore" starring Robin Wright and Ben Mendelsshon. The film premiered at the Sundance Film festival where it scored mixed reviews but Watts scored stupendous notes for her performance. Originally titled "Two Mothers" when it premiered on the festival circuit, Tim Grierson of Screen International stated, "'Two Mothers' benefits from nuanced performances from Naomi Watts and Robin Wright." Damon Wise of the Guardian also praised Watts: "An incredibly provocative piece of work, featuring a brave and vulnerable performance by Naomi Watts." The movie is being released by Exclusive Media and is bound to get buzz for Watts in the Indie and critics circles.

Watts later releases "Sunlight Jr." in which she stars alongside Matt Dillion. The movie premired at the Tribeca Film Festival and was left without a distributor for several months. However, months after being screened in the markets, the film has finally found a home. The movie will be released by Samuel Goldwyn Films on VOD and in theaters in November. The movie scored strong reviews, with Ronnie Schieb of Variety stating: "Incandescent performances by Naomi Watts and Matt Dillon and an unerring grasp of strip-mall-dominated Florida distinguish 'Sunlight Jr.,' the latest feature from writer-director Laurie Collyer ('Sherrybaby')." 

Latinos Post also praised Watts for her performance: "Watts remains quiet for much of the film and her depressed stare makes the viewer work hard to attempt to read her inner monologue. She has a few moments of raw emotion that work because she spends most of the film making a physical attempt to retain composure." The film has yet to be seen by the majority of the critics, but if the movie is received the same as it was at Tribeca, then Watts could score a number of accolades.

If these two films fail to impress awards voters than perhaps "Diana" will do the job. Voters usually choose performances based on real people to win the Oscar. Recently, Meryl Streep won for playing Margaret Thatcher in "The Iron Lady," while Sandra Bullock won for playing Leigh Anne Touhy in "The Blind Side." Other actresses who have won for playing real-life characters include Marion Cotillard ("La Vie En Rose"), Helen Mirren ("The Queen") and Reese Witherspoon ("Walk the Line"). If the trend continues then Watts has a chance for her turn as Princess Diana.

The film has yet to premiere on the festival circuit but is set to open as a Gala presentation at the Zurich Film Festival. "Diana" depicts the last two years of Princess Diana's life and was directed by Oliver Hirschbiegel. The movie also stars Naveen Andrews, Douglass Hodge and Geraldine James. EOne may not have the biggest Oscar history, but if reviews are strong Watts has a good chance. The movie is set to roll out on Nov. 1.

Watts has a history with the Academy Awards as she has been nominated for two Oscars. In 2004 she received her first nomination for her work on "21 Grams." In 2013 the actress was nominated for her work in "The Impossible." Coincidentally both of her nominations came from foreign directors and not American or British filmmakers. If she is nominated for "Diana" she will continue the trend; Hirschbiegel is German.

Watts still has to face tough competition as many are picking Cate Blanchett as the favorite to win the category for her work in "Blue Jasmine." Additionally Sandra Bullock ("Gravity"), Judi Dench ("Philomena"), Amy Adams ("American Hustle"), Emma Thompson ("Saving Mr. Banks"), Kate Winslet ("Labor Day"), Nicole Kidman ("Grace of Monaco") and Marion Cotillard ("The Immigrant") are huge threats against Watts. Other actresses who are in the mix include Brie Larrson ("Short Term 12"), Greta Gerwig ("Frances Ha"), Berenice Bejo ("The Past"), and Julia Roberts ("August: Osage County").

As awards season comes closer it will be interesting to see if Watts' performances resonate. In the past when an actor has two or more films, the actor is affected as voters are unsure which performance to vote for. Last year Matthew McConaughey had three outstanding performances for his films "Bernie," "The Paperboy," and "Magic Mike." The three movies all campaigned for Supporting Actor but he failed to score a nomination seemingly because of voter confusion. The same thing happened with Michael Fassbender with his performances in "Shame," "A Dangerous Method" and "Jane Eyre" all in 2011. All three were lead actor performances, but none resonated enough on their own. At this point voters will have to wait and see where Watts ends up placing and if any of the performances are true "Oscar Bait."