The latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates that Tropical Storm Erick is approaching the tip of Baja California. and tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the coast within hours.
As of 8:00 a.m. PST on Monday, Erick was located approximately 50 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. The storm is currently moving toward the northwest at around 10 mph. Erick is expected to maintain its track over the next 24 to 48 hours, and by Wednesday the storm will reportedly change direction, and head toward the west-northwest.
Erick is expected to make its closest approach to the Baja California peninsula over the next few hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued by the Mexican government for Baja California Sur, from Santa Fe to La Paz. Heavy winds are expected to reach the warning area within the next several hours.
Maximum sustained winds decreased Monday to around 45 mph, though higher gusts are being reported. These winds extend outward up to 60 miles, mostly to the north and east of the storm's center. With conditions expected to weaken throughout the next few days, Erick should become nothing more than a remnant within the next 48 hours.
While Erick might dissipate by the end of the week, the system won't disappear before dropping some rain on the region. The storm is expected to produce total accumulations of between 1 to 3 inches over the Southern Baja California peninsula, with up to 4 inches of rain possible as well in the mountains north of Cabo San Lucas. These heavy rains may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, AccuWeather reports.
Ocean swells generated by Erick are anticipated to affect the entire "affected area." These swells will be intense and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
The NHC will issue its next intermediate advisory on the storm at approximately 11:00 a.m. PST, and its next complete advisory at 2:00 p.m. PST. Stay tuned for ongoing updates.
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