Immigration Reform News 2013: Immigration Will Outpace Population Growth by Mid-Century Says Census Bureau

For the first time since at least 1850, U.S. population growth will soon be due mostly to immigration, according to a new report from the Census Bureau.

"International migration is projected to surpass natural increase (births minus deaths) as the principal driver of U.S. population growth by the middle of this century," said the report. "This scenario would mark the first time that natural increase was not the leading cause of population increase since at least 1850, when the census began collecting information about residents' country of birth. The shift in what drives U.S. population growth is projected to occur between 2027 and 2038, depending on the future level of international migration."

The Census Bureau developed several projections of population growth and dynamics out to 2060, since predictions vary greatly depending on initial assumptions. "Projections of international migration are challenging to produce, because it is difficult to anticipate future social, political, and economic conditions and how they may influence migration into or out of the United States," said demographer Jennifer Ortman. "Developing this range of alternative projections shows how differing levels of net international migration alter the pace at which the U.S. population grows, ages, and diversifies."

Currently, about 725,000 immigrants come to the United States every year. The projections predict that number will grow to anywhere between 824,000 to 1.6 million per year y 2060. At the same time, by 2041, the United States should have  a population that is majority non-white, due to both immigration and natural population growth, which is currently higher among minorities.

In addition, Hispanics currently make up about 17 percent of the U.S. population. By 2060, that number will grow to between 29 and 32 percent, whatever the outcome of the immigration bill currently being considered by the Senate. The Census Bureau projections account for all people living in the country, not just American citizens.