Immigration Reform 2013 News: Path to Citizenship Won't Lead to 11 Million New Democrats

On both sides of the immigration debate, we hear rumors of 11 million eligible new voters, as undocumented immigrants become citizens and receive the right to vote. Surely they'll be Democrats?

That sentiment was expressed by no less a prescient political analyst than Donald Trump himself, back during CPAC 2013. And many Republicans are worried about an influx of new Hispanic voters. Their American brethren went 71 percent for President Obama in last year's election.

Democrats, too, seem to believe this line, almost salivating over the prospect.

While any large increase in the American electorate will have repercussions, particularly in a public as narrowly divided as this one, the effect from the immigration bill will likely be much smaller than all that.

Several new analyses are out, all of them making salient points, and a few miscalculations.

First, the path to citizenship outlined in the immigration bill takes 13 years -applicants won't be eligible to vote in a presidential election until 2028, when nearly any prediction we can make will be hopelessly outdated.

By then, President Chelsea Clinton will be running for reelection against her formidable opponents, bionic former pop star Mecha-Bieber and Governor Gingrich of the moon colony.

Or maybe not.

In addition, it's likely many undocumented immigrants who will be eligible for citizenship won't apply for it, or won't qualify, or won't be able to afford the process.

Some have pointed out that many of the undocumented are under 18 and cannot vote, but they will be in 13 years, and young immigrants will qualify for a faster path to citizenship under special exemptions.

While most undocumented immigrants are Hispanic, a large percentage are Asian. That demographic voted even more clearly for Obama - 73 percent - but are mainly concentrated in blue states on the West Coast.

By some estimates, after filtering out everyone who either won't or can't become a citizen, analysts more experienced than me estimate perhaps only a million or two new voters, a number that will be far overshadowed by population growth. A full 50,000 Latino citizens turn 18 every month.

Far more than a few million extra voters, Republicans should be worried about demographic shifts and the constant march of time.