Democrat Elizabeth Colbert-Busch now leads her Republican opponent Mark Sanford by 9 points in the race for the House seat representing South Carolina, according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling.
Colbert-Busch is the sister of faux conservative comedian Stephen Colbert, though her recent success seems to be due mostly to the electorate's negative feelings toward Sanford, who was once the Republican governor of the state but resigned amid a scandal that involved his disappearance and affair with an Argentine woman in 2009.
In the new poll, 50 percent of respondents said they would vote for Colbert-Busch, while 41 percent said they would vote for Sanford. South Carolina's First District is heavily Republican, so the results represent a huge upset for Democrats.
The special election will be held May 7, after former congressman Tim Scott was appointed by Republican Governor Nikki Haley to fill the vacated Senate seat of Jim DeMint.
DeMint, in turn, left the Senate at the end of 2012 to head the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.
Neither Colbert-Busch nor Sanford had announced their interest in the seat until it was available, so Haley had no way of knowing her appointment could lead to a turnover in the House, though that outcome is still far from certain.
In the last few weeks, leaked documents showed Sanford was accused of trespassing on multiple occasions at his ex-wife's house. Support for Sanford dropped precipitously, from an earlier shortfall of only 2 points, well within the margin of error, as many Republicans simply decided to sit out this particular election.
Media coverage has focused mainly on Sanford's troubles. When he was governor, his then-wife, Jenny Sanford, ran his campaign. Sanford approached her this year to ask if she would take over the same position, despite their messy divorce three years prior.
Jenny Sanford turned him down, and rumors are circulating that she was the one who leaked the trespassing accusations.
In January, Mark Sanford was found leaving his ex-wife's home after he had been told to stay away from the premises. Sanford took out a full-page ad in local news explaining his version of the story, saying he was simply accompanying his son in a viewing of the Super Bowl.
Sanford has been trying to play the role of the repentant sinner, openly acknowledging his affair and the turmoil is caused his family and his constituents. But at times he seems oblivious, as when he brought his former mistress, now fiancée, to a public event with his two sons in tow. Both boys seemed uncomfortable to be in the woman's presence, the first time they had done so publicly.
And after the news of the accusations leaked, the National Republican Congressional Committee announced it was withdrawing its funding from Sanford's campaign, leaving him to scramble for private donations to keep his operation afloat.
But there does seem to be some residual support in the community for Sanford. The new poll shows 65 percent of Republicans don't care about the trespassing charge. But overall, a full 56 percent of respondents said they have an unfavorable view of Sanford. His supporters seem to be behind him simply because there is no other option; Colbert-Busch is widely considered to be relatively liberal, especially for South Carolina.
It's possible South Carolina Republicans are playing a long game here. Rather than back a candidate with baggage, they may be content to let Colbert-Busch win this special election. She'll need to run again in 2014 to keep her seat, and by then, there may be a new Republican candidate with a perfect backstory ready to jump in the race: Jenny Sanford.
What better revenge for a scorned wife?
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