Venezuela Election 2013 Polls Show Capriles and Opposition Closing Gap With Maduro Day Before Election

Venezuela holds its second presidential election in six months on Sunday, after the death of President Hugo Chavez in March.

The frontrunner is Nicolas Maduro of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, former vice president to Chavez and the appointed heir of the bombastic demagogue.

Facing him is Henrique Capriles, the moderate governor of the Venezuelan state of Miranda. Capriles ran against Chavez in Oct. 2012, losing by about 11 percent of the vote. While that seems a large margin by American standards, it was the smallest margin of victory for Chavez in any of his four presidential campaigns.

Maduro is less popular and less charismatic than his predecessor, but he has been quick to seize the reins of power, solidifying the party under his leadership and preventing the government from fracturing in the absence of the powerful presence of Chavez.

Maduro has played heavily to the respect and admiration most of the country has for Chavez. After his death, Maduro gave heartfelt speeches and proclaimed that Chavez's body would be preserved in perpetuity for people to see. The Venezuelan constitution mandates that a new election be held soon after a sitting president's death, so Maduro will likely benefit from the sympathy vote, as mourning for Chavez has not yet concluded.

The campaign rhetoric has been heated from both sides. Maduro's ads say people who vote for the opposition don't love their mothers. Capriles called Maduro "Satan."

But polls show Capriles is closing the gap. The latest survey puts support for Maduro at 54.8 percent, while Capriles trails at 45.1 percent.  That nearly 10 percent margin may be overstated, however.

Support for the party of Chavez, and therefore the party of Maduro, borders on religious zeal in many parts of the country. Pollsters and journalists often find that people are only willing to express their support for Capriles in secret, away from neighbors who may retaliate against those seen as traitors.

Violent crime and murder rates are high in Venezuela, and some areas on the cities are controlled exclusively by pro-government militia gangs.

But this authoritarian control is one of the reasons Capriles and the opposition may have an opportunity to win; without Chavez and his daily speeches, the problems of Venezuelan society- high crime, high inflation, are harder to hide.

Maduro will likely emerge the winner tomorrow. But the opposition is growing, Chavez is dead, and his coattails are only so long.