The Arctic could be nearly free of summer ice by the middle of the twenty-first century, with some predictions claiming it could happen within a few decades.
Scientists have been using three different models to predict how climate change will affect the ice flows of the Arctic, and it looks like a matter of time before the area is almost ice free, according to an article by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).
James Overland, from NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, had this to say about the shrinking ice of the Arctic.
"Rapid Arctic sea ice loss is probably the most visible indicator of global climate change; it leads to shifts in ecosystems and economic access, and potentially impacts weather throughout the northern hemisphere ...Increased physical understanding of rapid Arctic climate shifts and improved models are needed that give a more detailed picture and timing of what to expect so we can better prepare and adapt to such changes. Early loss of Arctic sea ice gives immediacy to the issue of climate change."
The first model used to track ice loss in the Arctic is the "trendsetters" approach, where predictions are based on past sea ice loss data. This model would predict a nearly ice-free Arctic by 2020. The "stochasters" model is based on seemingly random years of rapid sea ice loss, such as those in 2007 and 2012. This model predicts near-total ice loss by 2030, though given the model's nature it has a lot of unknown variables that could affect the model. Finally, the "modelers" gathers large amounts of data to form atmospheric, ocean, land, and sea predictions for the Arctic. This model would have the Arctic warming up to eradicate most of it's ice sometime between 2040-2060.
While these models predict huge amounts of ice loss, the Arctic would not completely lose its ice, as parts of Canada and Greenland would continue to covered in Arctic ice.
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