Euro Cup 2012 Germany Vs. Italy: Why Italy Will Win (UPDATED)

Italy comes into their match with Germany despite never losing to them in seven previous competitive matches.

The Azzurri started the tournament brilliantly by shutting down and often outplaying the defending champion Spain. After that it has been downhill despite a win over Ireland (the worst team in the tournament), who barely got past a weak English side.

Despite these shortcomings, there are reasons to believe that Italy can overcome the titanic Germans.

Defensive Advantage

Italy has the better defensive side in this tournament as evidenced by their two goals against through four matches. Germany has allowed four goals in their first four games, including two against a weak Greek offense. Their defense managed to shut down the Spanish side in the opening match of the tournament and they will likely review that game prior to their match with the Germans. Look for Italy to clog the midfield and pressure Mesut Ozil. The Italians will rely heavily on the counter to produce goals. If they score early, look for them to sit back and parry Germany's attempts.

Less Pressure

Italy knows what everyone else thinks. And what everyone else thinks is that Germany will crush the Italians. In fact, no one is giving the Azzurri a chance to go far in this tournament, much less get out of this match alive. No one saw Italy as a championship contender, and nobody believes it now either. However, this also means that all the pressure is on Germany to produce. Everyone is expecting the Germans to win it all and it is possible that the Germans may be distracted by the prospect of a Sunday final before getting business done on Thursday.

The Italians will be loose in this match, knowing that they already succeeded everyone's expectations in this tournament. In fact, they may be fueled by a desire to prove everyone wrong and may catch an overconfident Germany unexpectedly.

Gianluigi Buffon

If and when the Germans penetrate Italy's defense, there is great comfort for the Azzurri knowing that they have a legend in the pipes to cover up their mistakes. Buffon has been brilliant throughout his career and has continued his stellar play in this tournament. He has only given up two goals in the first two matches and has since pitched two straight shutouts.

Most important of all is that Buffon is the captain of this team and he has experience of a champion. He was a part of the 2006 champions that were expected to lose to the juggernaut Germans in the semi-finals. Instead, he helped lead the team to victory and eventually won the cup with them. Buffon has something that the Germans don't: he is a proven winner and champion. He will use that to lead his team.

Disagree? Read the counterargument for a Germany Victory HERE.

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