Rand Paul 2016 Presidential Run: The Libertarian Congressman Is Building Support, But What Are His Chances Of Being Nominated?

Rand Paul has been making a national name for himself lately, but what are his prospects for actually snagging the Republican nomination in 2016?

Paul rode a wave of Tea Party populism to best his establishment opponent to become the Republican Senate candidate for Kentucky in 2010, assuring his victory in the heavily red state.

As the son of libertarian darling and former Texas congressman Ron Paul, he began with a fair bit of name recognition and parlayed his outsider's credentials well, portraying himself as a reasonable opponent of many of the Obama administration's policies, but with more public appeal than traditional foils like fellow Kentuckian Mitch McConnell or John McCain, and far less strident than Sarah Palin or the House Tea Party.

He has gained bipartisan support for his opposition to the CIA's drone strike program, and he made recent headlines for his old-school talking filibuster of the nomination of John Brennan for CIA Director, in protest of the administration's potential use of drones against American citizens on U.S. soil.

In the past week, Paul has been building support in the more moderate wing of the Republican Party. In a speech to the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce he voiced his support for a path to citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants in the country, though he declined to use that term, as many conservatives find it anathema.

Paul will also give the speech at the Lincoln Dinner in Iowa this May, the site of the first ballots in the 2016 presidential race. If Paul is setting himself up for a run at the presidency, he's doing a good job of it.

But his chances of actually securing the nomination, even one several years off, are still quite low. Republicans have a history of choosing establishment candidates, and their last venture off the beaten path was Sarah Palin, whose nomination as their vice presidential candidate in 2008 is now generally regarded as a mistake within the party.

And while Paul's policies may give him edge among independents and even some fiscally-conservative Democrats, he is likely too at odds with the corporate-positive ethos of the mainstream Republican Party.

Conservatives looking for a candidate with a fresh perspective also have other options. While Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey was an early favorite, his embrace of federal funds to rebuild his state after Hurricane Sandy, and his moderate social views will probably alienate too much of the base.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has a better shot, as does Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. In a telling moment, Rubio was selected to give the official Republican response to Obama's State of the Union address last month, while Paul gave the Tea Party's independent and unsanctioned response.

Paul seems likely to follow in his father's footsteps, a popular but always second-tier candidate who eventually must fall in line behind the eventual nominee. That is unless he spends the next few years ingratiating himself with the Republican establishment.

And if he does that, he loses his cachet. Paul's problem is not one of policy, but of party.