Hugo Chavez Succession: Venezuela Election 2013 Pits Socialist Old Guard Against Moderate Opposition

The death of President Hugo Chavez has rocked the small South American nation of Venezuela. Chavez was loved by his supporters, particularly by the poor, the military and indigenous peoples -- and vilified by his opponents, both in country and abroad.

The differences of opinion are to be expected, as Chavez was a polarizing figure, but now the country must choose a way forward as a special presidential election looms in the next few weeks.

The Venezuelan Constitution, shepherded into being less than 15 years ago by Chavez himself, mandates a new election within 30 days if a president dies early in his term, as Chavez did last week.

Battle line are being drawn, and two candidates have emerged: Vice President Nicolas Maduro, the heir apparent to Chavez's legacy, and Henrique Capriles, the moderate opposition leader who lost the 2012 election to Chavez.

This campaign is ultimately an extension of that recent election. In October, Chavez won election to a fourth presidential term, defeating Capriles by 9 points, the smallest margin of victory ever for Chavez.

Capriles cut into much of Chavez's support by wooing the middle class and students, many of whom are worried about massive inflation and skyrocketing murder rates, as well as poor job prospects within Venezuela, especially for students and young people who do not want to join the government of the military.

Capriles is a young, handsome regional governor, and he has won accolades for being a much more moderate, less authoritarian voice than Chavez in recent years. Indeed, some of the strongest support for Capriles came from outside the country, from Venezuelan expatriates living in the United States, many of whom  were shocked that Capriles lost the election.

But shortly after the election, Chavez announced his cancer -- an unknown type he had been diagnosed with two years prior -- had returned and that he was traveling to Cuba for surgery.

Before he left, in a move that may end up determining next month's election, Chavez publically declared Maduro his successor, in case he didn't make it through the surgery.

Chavez did survive, but he was never in good health again. He appeared in public only once before his death, and rumors of his demise circulated for weeks before Maduro announced it publically.

In January, opposition leaders headed by Capriles demanded that Chavez resign if he was not well enough to attend the inauguration ceremony. The Venezuelan Supreme Court, which has close ties to the Chavez administration, ruled that the inauguration was a formality, as Chavez was already president, and could be performed at another time.

A week before Chavez's death, Capriles again charged the government with dissembling, hiding the true nature of Chavez's health condition. Soon after, whether spurred by Capriles or coincidental timing, Maduro announced the death of Chavez, proclaiming him a martyr and declaring that his cancer was somehow caused by enemies of the state.

Because of the anointing by Chavez in December, no other Socialist Party members are stepping up to challenge Maduro. Previously, it seemed likely that Maduro would need to fend off attacks from Diosdado Cabello, the head of the National Assembly, or even Chavez's older brother, himself a regional governor.

But everyonr has fallen in line. Even the smaller Communist Party of Venezuela had thrown its weight behind the Socialists and Maduro.

Capriles officially announced his candidacy this week. Though his ground game and campaign infrastructure are still in place from last year's election, Capriles will need to contend with the sympathy vote. An intense outpouring of public grief followed Chavez's death, and millions gathered for his funeral. His body now lies in state and will be embalmed and placed on display indefinitely. Whatever the public thinks of Maduro, it seems unlikely that Capriles will be able to overcome the palpable reminders of Chavez so soon after his death. And with a presidential term of six years, it will be a while before Capriles or another moderate has another opportunity to change the country's trajectory. Chavez may be gone, but "Chavismo" still has life in it.