Pope Benedict XVI Resigns: Could the Next Pope Be from Africa or South America?

Pope Benedict XVI surprised church leaders, laypeople and the world at large when he announced he would resign his position, citing ill health. He is the first pope to step down in 500 years. Who will succeed him?

Benedict officially ends his tenure on Feb. 28. After that, cardinals from around the world have 15 to 20 days to gather in The Vatican before sequestering themselves in Saint Peter's to begin deliberations.

In all, 118 cardinals are eligible to vote for the new pope. Cardinals over the age of 80 may not participate, which means Benedict himself, who is 85, will not be part of the proceedings.

Many of the cardinals who will determine the next pope were appointed by Benedict himself, and most of the rest were appointed by Benedict's predecessor, John Paul II. Benedict was considered an ideological heir to John Paul, so it is likely there will be little change in the direction of the church; most of the cardinals voting on the new pope are ardent supporters of current doctrine, which emphasizes orthodoxy and conservative interpretations of scripture.

Many of the recently appointed cardinals are also Italian, increasing the likelihood that the next pope will be Italian, as is traditional, or at least European.

Some church watchers speculate it is time for an African pope, or a pope from South America or the global south. The church is strongest in the developing world and is losing influence in Europe and North America.

But it is unlikely that supporters of candidates from the developing world will be able to rally around a single person quickly enough. There is no official nine-day mourning period, as Benedict is still alive, so the selection process will be relatively quick.

More likely is the election of a Canadian or American pope, which would still be historic. Technically, three early popes were of African origin, though they were considered Roman.

Angelo Scola, the archbishop of Milan, has emerged as an early favorite, especially as he is Italian. Both he and Christoph Schoborn of Vienna have similar theological views to Benedict and John Paul.

The only American who might be in the running is Timothy Dolan, archbishop of New York, particularly if the church seeks to expand its influence in the Unites States.

But Marc Ouellet of Quebec hews more closely to the positions of Benedict and John Paul.

As for candidates from the developing world, Peter Appiah Turkson, the cardinal of Ghana, tops most lists. He is young(ish) and conservative, considered by many to be a better option than the older and equally conservative Francis Arinze of Nigeria.

But the Catholic Church is nothing if not traditional. There have now been two non-Italian popes in a row, and many of the cardinals who elected Benedict only seven years ago will vote again this time. Look for the church to keep to its roots: a European will likely continue to lead it.