Latest Immigration Reform News: Does Bipartisan Senate Bill Actually Have a Chance to Pass?

With the emergence of a bipartisan plan for immigration reform, the country is closer to making sweeping changes than it has been in decades. But will the new legislation make it through Congress?

That's a tough question, and the only sure answer is, "It depends."

The Republicans finally realize, for the first time since Ronald Reagan, that they need to votes of Latinos and other demographics with ties to undocumented immigrants if they want to win national elections.

Fomenting anti-immigrant sentiment still works in many places in the country, even many states, but the makeup and sentiments of the country have changed enough that those tactics don't work in presidential campaigns.

Much like the Republican Party tried to quiet extremists who painted the party as misogynists during the 2012 election, so too will the Republicans move to quiet equally strident voices who speak out about immigration.

But they must do so without alienating their base, many of whom blame immigration for a lack of jobs.

And so the Republican leadership is faced with whipping its more conservative members into line.

This is easier in the Senate, where members represent larger swaths of the electorate and are less beholden to vocal minorities in small districts. As well, the rise of minorities in the Republican Party give voice to people who know that immigrants can't simply be sent back where they came from.

While Democrats want to see immigration reform happen soon, as they've been pushing for years, they have the luxury of time, at least politically. Many Democrats are unhappy President Obama hasn't accomplished more for immigration reform so far, so he will need to deliver something this term, ideally before the midterm elections, but until then, he can sit back and watch the Republicans tear themselves apart over the issue.

Obama has said he supports the bipartisan Senate proposal, and he has put forward several more progressive changes he would like to see, like the extension of his deportation deferment program, the easing of restrictions on family members-including same-sex partners-and reforms not tied to increases in border enforcement.

But the Senate plan is one he agrees with and would be happy to see pass. Democrats will continue to push, and if Republicans can't muster the votes to pass even these limited reforms, which most Americans support, then Obama can present his agenda and force the Republicans to vote against a popular measure a second time, perhaps undermining their support in the midterm elections.

Republicans are in a situation similar to the one they faced during the debt ceiling crisis. They need to acquiesce to unpleasant realities or face even more unpleasant ones down the road.

So they will attempt to moderate their tone but wring concessions over border security and amnesty in the meantime.

Will immigration reform pass? Yes, but perhaps not right away. That's for the Republicans to decide, else the decision will be made for them.