With the recent premieres of such films as Les Miserables, The Hobbit, and Zero Dark Thirty, the Best Picture Race seems to start shaping up. A number of websites have already posted their top contenders for award season's top prize.
As per Academy rules, five to 10 films can be nominated in the category and many of these sites have discrepancies in the amount of films to be nominated.
Awards Circuit has seven nominees: Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Master, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty.
Rope of Silicon's latest rankings as of November 26 not only has a list of the possible contenders but which films they think have the greatest chance to win. Their list (in order of best chance to worst) includes Les Miserables, Lincoln, Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Moonrise Kingdom. Zero Dark Thirty rose 13 spots since their last update. The Hobbit does not figure in this publications top nine or even 10 as the blockbuster sits in 14th place on their list.
Indiewire has their top five followed by the runner ups in case the list goes longer. The top five are Lincoln, Les Miserables, Argo, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook. If there are six nominees Zero Dark Thirty is the pick; if seven, Amour, if eight The Master. Indiewire believes that if there are 10 nominations, then Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom will occupy the final two spots. Like Rope of Silicon, The Hobbit sits at number 14.
ComingSoon.net states that Argo, Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook are locks. Les Miserables is also on their list. The publication considers Zero Dark Thirty as a strong possibility as well. Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, and The Master are also top contenders for the site.
Finally, Awards Daily has Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Life of Pi, Flight, Les Miserables, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Moonrise Kingdom as the top contenders.
One major film has yet to be screened however, Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained. This film could ultimately alter the state of the race if Tarantino doubles the success he had with Inglorious Basterds.
The above lists are obviously small samples, but if they are right then they indicate that The Hobbit may be a longshot for the Best Picture categories. The three Lord of the Ring films each saw Best Picture nominations when the category was limited to five films and the final isntallment picked up the Best Picture win.
Fans of Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises (whose predecessor was the main reason for the category's expansion) will likely be left empty handed as the film increasingly looks like it has no chance at a top nomination.