The battle lines are solidifying in the fight over the Electoral College, and swing states are beginning to fall where expected.
A Gravis poll in Florida gives Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 1-point lead over President Obama, continuing the trend seen since the first presidential debate.
Romney is also up 2 points in Virginia in a Rasmussen poll, though that state has been far more split lately.
After North Carolina was called for Romney a week ago, it's seemed likely that he'll sweep the entire South, turning Virginia, Florida and North Carolina red again, after their defection to the Democrats in 2008.
But Obama is up by 5 points in a new Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania. I've been predicting that Pennsylvania will be called for Obama soon, and this poll should help push the simulations in that direction.
Obama will likely take the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, although a Baydoun/Foster poll out Wednesday calls the race a tie in Michigan, 47 percent even.
But the most influential news to come out of the swing states, and the worst for Romney, is the recent Ohio polls.
I talked about the Rasmussen tie and the SurveyUSA Obama win yesterday, but a Time Magazine poll released late Wednesday gives Obama a 5-point lead in Ohio, bolstered by 60 percent support among early voters.
A Nevada Public Policy Polling survey also shows Obama leading, 51 percent to 47 percent.
If Romney loses Ohio, he has few paths let to the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the White House.
If the swing states mentioned here follow these polls, Romney will need to take both Colorado and Iowa, which is doable for him, as well as one of Wisconsin or Michigan.
It is Michigan that may be his biggest potential prize. If Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio are spoken for, then Michigan's 16 electoral votes are the largest pot remaining on the map.
While Romney did not support Obama's popular auto-industry bailout, his father was governor of Michigan, and Romney grew up there. If he can erode Obama's support in Michigan, it will be an excellent hedge against a loss in Ohio.
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