In Ohio We Trust.
Already crucial Ohio is becoming even more important. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight predicts a 50 percent chance that Ohio decides the election, as much as every other state combined.
I've talked a lot about the difficult hoops Romney would need to jump through in order to win without Ohio, but let's talk a bit about Obama's chances, because they're tough, too.
If Romney takes Ohio, Obama will need to sweep every other swing state except the South, which it looks like he's going to lose anyway.
He does have a chance to break up the South and take Virginia, which would let him lose Colorado and either Iowa or New Hampshire, which are looking dicey for him lately.
Without Ohio, Obama is 49 electoral votes shy of winning outright, with 93 votes still in play. He could make up a lot of ground with Florida's 29 votes or Virginia's 13, and he'll likely take Michigan's 16 votes and Wisconsin's 10.
That combination would be far more than enough to win. But if Obama loses Ohio, it's very unlikely that he'll win in either Florida or Virginia.
Elections in individual states aren't independent from one another, and if sentiment in Ohio moves enough for Romney to win there, it's almost assured that it will have moved enough to guarantee Romney wins in Florida and Virginia.
Which puts Obama back in the tricky spot of needing literally every other state that's in play, even New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes. He's looking solid in Nevada already, but Colorado is on the razor's edge.
Iowa is safer, but without Ohio, Obama has no room for error.
This is why Ohio is so important for Obama, not just as a block on Romney's ambitions, but as a hedge for his own potential weaknesses in swing states that are by no means safely in his column.
Pouring time, energy and volunteers into Ohio keeps him from needing to put as much into New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. Of course, opposition is strongest in Ohio because Romney is fighting back the hardest there.
But the alternative--carrying every other ambivalent state--may just be unfeasible.
Related Stories
>> Post-Presidential Debate Poll Analysis: Can Obama's Win Help Him Break Out of His Tie With Romney?
>> Latest National Presidential Polls 2012: Results Tilt Towards Romney in Gallup, But Obama Ahead in Others; The Race Dead Even?
>> Post-Debate Presidential Polls 2012: Did Obama Get a Big Post-Debate "Bounce"?
>> Presidential Polls 2012 - Latest Swing State Polls: Obama Up in Ohio, Can Romney Reap Elections Without It?