A new CNN/ORC poll shows President Obama ahead in the bitterly-fought battleground state of Ohio. Obama has a 4-point lead in the state, according to the poll released Tuesday afternoon.
This is bad news for Romney. While he is enjoying a bounce in the national polls after his impressive debate performance last week, no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio.
Due to the mathematical quirks of the Electoral College, whichever candidate wins a state receives all its votes, and without Ohio, Romney will have to win other, more difficult states, like Florida or Nevada.
Just a few weeks ago, the Romney campaign was considering pulling its ads (and money) out of Ohio to focus on other states that looked more promising. But now both candidates are visiting the Buckeye State in a renewed push to cement their support among a population that looks like a microcosm of the entire country.
"Independent voters, suburban voters, and older voters are all evenly divided, indicating a close race right now," said Keating Holland, polling director for CNN.
"But that's not a prediction of what will happen in November," he said. "With one in eight likely voters saying that they could change their minds between now and November, and several crucial debates still to come, there is every reason to expect the race to change in Ohio."
Obama carried Ohio by 5 points in 2008, but the state went for Bush in 2004. The president gave a speech at Ohio State University yestersday, reminding voters that Tuesday was the last day to register to vote in Ohio.
"There are buses around the corner that can get you there and back," Obama said to the crowd, urging them to head to registration offices.
Ohio is a Rust Belt state, heavy on idle manufacturing plants and abandoned steel mills, but the auto industry bailout saved millions of jobs. Ohioans are also supportive of unions, and the state's relatively good economic outlook may keep it in the Democrats' column for now.
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